人民币国际化影响因素的实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-23 06:27

本文选题：人民币国际化 + 国际储备　；参考：《复旦大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文将在梳理英镑、美元、马克、欧元、日元五大货币国际化经验的基础上,总结出影响人民币国际化的重要因素；以国际储备份额为衡量指标,构建并估计一国货币国际化程度的测度模型,并对二十年后人民币国际储备份额作出科学预测。通过总结五大货币国际化史发现,货币的崛起都有其一定的历史机遇,同时离不开经济发展规模、金融市场发展程度以及币值稳定三大因素；而目前的中国尚需在后两个方面倍加努力。通过实证研究发现,经济规模、资本项目开放、汇率波动、货币惯性是影响国际储备份额的重要因素,而货币惯性在欧元诞生后有所减弱,这将有利于人民币挑战现有国际货币；通过情景模拟,本文还预测了二十年后人民币在国际储备中的份额,其中最乐观的情景下人民币份额将达到20%以上,但这需要国内经济持续较快增长,且资本项目开放同步推进。鉴于上述实证研究,本文认为,目前中国应当抓住后金融危机这一历史性契机,在中国经济总量、贸易总量逐步成为世界第一的同时,辅之以资本项目有序开放、国内与离岸金融市场进一步发展等措施,从而使人民币与美元、欧元一起并肩成为三大国际货币。
[Abstract]:This paper will sum up the important factors that influence the internationalization of RMB on the basis of combing the internationalization experience of sterling, US dollar, mark, euro and yen. This paper constructs and estimates the model of a country's currency internationalization degree, and makes a scientific prediction of the RMB international reserve share after 20 years. By summing up the history of the internationalization of the five major currencies, it is found that the rise of money has its own historical opportunities, and at the same time it is inseparable from the scale of economic development, the degree of development of the financial market and the stability of the currency. China, however, still needs to redouble its efforts in the latter two areas. Through empirical research, it is found that economic scale, capital account opening, exchange rate fluctuation and currency inertia are the important factors affecting the share of international reserves, and currency inertia has weakened after the birth of the euro. This will help the RMB challenge the existing international currency. Through scenario simulations, the paper also predicts the RMB share in international reserves in 20 years' time, and in the most optimistic scenario, the RMB share will reach more than 20%. But this needs the domestic economy to maintain the fast growth, and the capital account opening advances simultaneously. In view of the above empirical research, this paper holds that China should seize the historic opportunity of the post-financial crisis at present, while China's economic aggregate and total trade volume gradually become the first in the world, supplemented by the orderly opening of capital account. Measures such as further development of domestic and offshore financial markets have made the renminbi, the dollar and the euro side by side as the three major international currencies.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F224

【参考文献】