中国货币政策的区域效应分析

发布时间：2018-06-27 04:37

本文选题：货币政策 + 区域效应　；参考：《东北财经大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：从理论上讲,一个统一的货币政策有效实施的前提是货币区内各地区经济的均质化和经济周期的一致性。但现实往往并非如此,统一的货币政策总会产生区域效应。中国作为一个典型的大国,地区之间经济发展的差距随着经济的快速发展和生活水平的显著提高而拉大。货币政策作为一个总量性质的调控政策,应该在全国范围内保持统一,但目前“一刀切”的政策严重忽视了区域经济发展中的巨大差异,并在大大降低货币政策有效性的同时,也进一步拉大了地区间经济发展的差距。因此,货币政策的区域效应已成为一个迫切需要解决的问题,我国货币当局在实施统一货币政策的同时应适度注意区域差异,从而力求避免货币政策区域效应的影响。目前,国内对货币政策区域效应的研究刚起步不久,无论是理论研究的深度和广度,还是实证研究的方法和论证,很多地方都需要加以改进。对货币政策区域效应形成机制的深入研究,有助于提高我国货币政策的有效性,进而促进我国区域经济和金融的协调发展。本文第一部分是导论部分。这部分首先给出选题的来源及意义,对货币政策区域效应的研究进行一个简单的回顾,从中归纳出主流的研究方法和需要进一步讨论的问题。第二部分是我国货币政策区域效应存在性的理论分析。这部分首先进行区域的划分：选择2001-2010年间31个省市的市场化指数,对他们的平均值做聚类分析。然后以最优货币区理论为切入点,介绍构成最优货币区的标准,最后对比分析我国是否满足各项标准,从而初步判断我国是否存在货币政策区域效应。第三部分是我国货币政策区域效应存在性的实证检验。这部分首先通过VAR模型选择我国货币政策的衡量指标,再对相关经济变量采用协整检验得到协整方程以反映货币政策与区域经济增长的长期动态关系,从而实证检验我国是否存在货币政策区域效应。第四部分是我国货币政策区域效应的原因分析。这部分指出货币政策区域效应根本上是由总需求和总供给之间的相互作用造成的,所以首先从总需求角度分析货币政策对各区域消费、投资和净出口需求产生的影响差异及其原因,其次从总供给角度分析各区域供给曲线的差异及其原因。第五部分是结论与建议。这部分首先对前面的内容做一个简单的小结,得到以下几个结论：第一,我国尚不是最优货币区；第二,我国应该选择货币供应量作为货币政策衡量指标；第三,我国存在货币政策区域效应；第四,从总需求角度分析货币政策区域效应的原因主要是各地区经济发展水平和收入水平不均衡,市场化程度和对外开放程度不一致,以及借贷市场发展程度不同步等。从总供给角度分析货币政策区域效应的原因主要是各地区价格变化差异、预期能力差异、劳动生产率差异和资源禀赋差异等。其次再根据前面的理论与实证分析,结合中国经济的发展现状提出可行的政策建议：一方面可以通过财政政策、产业政策等措施协调区域经济结构与发展水平；另一方面可以在统一的大前提下,实行有差别的区域货币政策,以减缓区域经济差距的扩大。本文在前人研究的基础上,采用理论与实际相结合的方法,以一个新的角度研究了我国货币政策的区域效应,并结合实际提出了可行的政策建议。
[Abstract]:In theory , a unified monetary policy is effectively implemented on the premise of the homogenization of the economy and the consistency of the economic cycle in the currency area . However , the reality is not the same , and the unified monetary policy always produces regional effect . As a typical big country , the gap between the region ' s economic development and the economic development of the region is greatly reduced . The regional effect of monetary policy is a problem that needs to be solved urgently . Therefore , the monetary authorities should pay attention to regional differences while implementing uniform monetary policy , so as to avoid the effect of monetary policy regional effect .

At present , the domestic research on the regional effect of monetary policy has just started , whether the depth and breadth of the theoretical research , or the method and the demonstration of the empirical research , many places need to be improved . In - depth study on the mechanism of the regional effect of monetary policy can help to improve the effectiveness of the monetary policy in our country and further promote the coordinated development of regional economy and finance in our country .

The first part of this paper is the introduction part . This part firstly gives the origin and significance of the choice questions , and makes a simple review on the study of the regional effect of monetary policy , from which the mainstream research methods and the further discussion need to be discussed .

The second part is the theoretical analysis of the existence of the regional effect of monetary policy in China . This part is divided into four regions : selecting the market - oriented index of 31 provinces in 2001 - 2010 , clustering the average value of them . Then , taking the best monetary zone theory as the entry point , the paper introduces the criteria of forming the optimal monetary zone , and finally , compares and analyzes whether our country meets the criteria , so as to judge whether the monetary policy area effect exists in our country .

The third part is an empirical test of the existence of monetary policy regional effect in China . This part firstly selects China ' s monetary policy measurement index through VAR model , and then adopts co - integration test on relevant economic variables to reflect the long - term dynamic relationship between monetary policy and regional economic growth , so as to empirically test whether the monetary policy area effect exists in our country .

The fourth part is the reason analysis of the regional effect of monetary policy in China . In this part , it is pointed out that the regional effect of monetary policy is caused by the interaction between total demand and total supply .

The fifth part is the conclusion and suggestion . This part firstly makes a brief summary of the previous contents , and obtains the following conclusions : First , our country is not the optimal currency area ;
Secondly , we should choose the money supply as the measure of monetary policy ;
Third , China has monetary policy area effect ;
Fourth , the analysis of the regional effect of monetary policy from the angle of total demand is mainly because the economic development level and the income level are not balanced , the degree of marketization is not consistent with the degree of opening to the outside world , and the development degree of the lending market is not synchronized .
On the other hand , different regional monetary policies can be implemented on the premise of unification , so as to alleviate the expansion of regional economic gap .

Based on the previous research , this paper studies the regional effect of China ' s monetary policy in a new angle with the combination of theory and practice , and puts forward some feasible policy suggestions .
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F224;F822.0

【参考文献】