国际热钱与国际资产价格波动

发布时间：2018-07-11 18:28

本文选题：国际热钱 + 金融危机　；参考：《中国流通经济》2010年01期

【摘要】：对冲基金规模与主要证券市场指数及代表性商品价格变动的相关度具有时变性特征,相关度的聚集意味着资产价格泡沫发起;国际热钱与国际资产价格之间基本上不存在长期均衡关系,数月间的短期冲击与运动作战是国际热钱的主要运行模式;金融危机高潮之后,国际热钱开始聚集能量,对冲基金规模开始回升,石油与黄金成为其投机的重点,这意味着国际资产价格已经从底部抬头。因此,监测以对冲基金为代表的国际热钱,有助于我们监测国际资产价格走势和泡沫的形成,结合国内实体经济的供需状态,可以监测通货膨胀的抬头。
[Abstract]:The correlation between hedge fund size and the main stock market index and representative commodity price is time-varying, and the aggregation of correlation degree means the initiation of asset price bubble. There is basically no long-term equilibrium relationship between international hot money and international asset prices. Short-term shocks and sports operations during the past few months are the main operating modes of international hot money. After the climax of the financial crisis, international hot money began to gather energy. Hedge funds are starting to pick up, with oil and gold at the centre of their speculation, meaning international asset prices have risen from the bottom. Therefore, monitoring international hot money, represented by hedge funds, can help us monitor the trend of international asset prices and the formation of bubbles, combined with the supply and demand of the domestic real economy, can monitor the rise of inflation.
【作者单位】：北京航空航天大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“金融风暴过程中资产价格波动及对中国的影响”(项目编号:70841019) 教育部应急课题“国际热钱与资产价格波动监测与预警”(项目编号:2009JYJR034)的部分成果
【分类号】：F832.6

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