货币投机中的稳定汇率承诺与政府救助——基于序贯博弈模型的多重均衡分析与模拟

发布时间：2018-07-25 19:31

【摘要】：中国目前的稳定汇率政策是对金融危机前的稳定汇率承诺的兑现,它可以有效稳定市场汇率预期,抵制随时可能到来的货币投机行为。本文在Mundaca模型的基础上构建一个具有稳定汇率承诺特征的序贯博弈模型,通过博弈均衡理论与数值模拟相结合的方法,分析货币投机冲击下的政府救助和汇率承诺的作用机制,提出一种结合政府事前汇率承诺的政府救助机制,详细分析"自实现"的稳定汇率承诺的作用机理,进而提出政策建议。
[Abstract]:China's current policy of stabilizing the exchange rate is the fulfilment of its commitment to stabilise the exchange rate before the financial crisis. It can effectively stabilize market exchange rate expectations and resist currency speculation that may come at any time. On the basis of Mundaca model, this paper constructs a sequential game model with the characteristics of stable exchange rate commitment. By combining game equilibrium theory with numerical simulation, this paper analyzes the mechanism of government rescue and exchange rate commitment under the impact of currency speculation. This paper puts forward a kind of government rescue mechanism combined with the government's prior exchange rate commitment, analyzes in detail the mechanism of the "self-actualized" stable exchange rate commitment, and then puts forward some policy recommendations.
【作者单位】：东北财经大学金融学院;渤海大学商学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(70873015) 2008年度教育部回国人员科研启动金项目(教外司留[2008]890号) 2009年度东北财经大学社会与行为跨学科研究中心核心项目“社会科学跨学科定量方法研究 ”2009年度辽宁省百千万人才工程人选项目(2009921099) 2010年度辽宁省重点实验室项目(WS2010003) 辽宁省教育厅2007年度创新团队项目(2007T030)
【分类号】：F822.0;F832.6;F224.32

【参考文献】