中国能源价格与总产出、货币政策关系研究

发布时间：2018-08-29 13:03

【摘要】：能源是人类经济社会存在和发展所必需的物质基础，没有能源的支撑就不会有基本的生产活动。中国是当今世界大型经济体中经济增长速度最快的国家，很多专家认为中国目前仍处于工业化和城市化的加速时期。如果内外部环境许可，中国的经济的适度增长还将持续较长时间。然而，我们还需要考虑，我们有没有足够的能源来支撑我们为了发展所需要的这种持续性增长。什么样的能源价格才能有效地满足我国经济增长的需要？因此需要对能源价格、经济增长以及货币政策之间的有机联系做出深入的研究。本文在吸收国内外相关文献研究成果的基础上，首先讨论了能源价格形成机制，目的在于对本文的核心内容—能源价格有一个清晰的认识；其次研究了能源价格与相关产业价格的关系以及能源价格与价格总水平的关系，研究结论为下一步研究能源消费与总产出之间的关系提供前提条件；再次，以经济增长理论为基础，通过将能源因素引入Cobb-Douglas生产函数研究能源消费和总产出之间的关系；复次，以货币与货币政策理论为基础，研究了能源价格、总产出及货币政策之间的关系，此部分是论文的核心；最后，以上述研究为依据，提出了关于能源价格问题、货币政策调控问题以及能源发展问题的政策建议。本文在实证研究中依据不同的问题性质分别采用了投入产出分析方法以及计量经济的相关方法。本文的主要结论有：（1）我国的能源价格形成机制不能很好地使价格机制这一资源配置的杠杆发挥应有的作用，需要通过足额补偿能源资源的内部成本和外部成本，即能源价格应体现资源本身的价值以及勘探、开采、使用过程中所带来的环境成本。此外，还应实行资源税费制度的改革、打破垄断格局、引入竞争机制，使得价格机制真正起到引导能源资源合理分配的作用。（2）我国的能源价格与相关产业的价格乃至价格总水平之间有着密切的关系，能源价格水平的上升最终会引起物价总水平的上升，且能源价格对生产者价格指数、居民消费价格指数的影响存在着时期的不一致性。（3）能源消费量与经济增长存在着长期均衡关系，我国在实行市场经济体制以后，，由于微观主体的市场约束的强化，使得能源强度有了明显的逐步下降，能源效率也随之有了较显著的提升。（4）应采取合理的货币政策来调节能源价格与价格总水平以及能源价格与总产出的关系，然而当前作为货币政策重要工具的货币供给量和利率在我国出现了作用不大的现象，主要原因是外汇占款导致货币供给量工具变得被动，而利率市场化较低使得利率的调节作用也非常局限，这就需要在货币政策中创新货币政策工具，解放已有的两大工具，并借助新的金融衍生工具来进行宏观调控。本文的创新点有：（1）本文基于经济增长理论和国民收入理论，综合考察了长期和短期中能源价格、总产出与货币政策之间的关系，这一研究路径有助于全面地揭示三者之间有机联系，在定性分析的基础上做了定量化的研究，有助于量化认识三个变量之间的相互关系。（2）本文基于投入产出技术，量化研究了煤炭、电力、石油等各种能源价格与相关产业价格之间的相互关系，提出了一系列围绕能源产业的价格传导链条，为宏观政策调控与能源产业相关产业价格波动提供了依据。（3）本文在对能源价格与货币政策变量进行了实证分析之后，结合货币政策理论分析，认为传统的货币政策调控方式在我国依然适用，但是在对能源价格波动引起的成本推动的价格上涨时，当前货币政策工具中的货币供给量的调节作用僵化，需要加快利率市场化进程，或借助新的金融工具来实现目标。（4）系统地考察了各类主要能源种类的价格形成机制，特别是我国煤炭资源的价格形成机制，剖析了煤炭价格形成机制存在的问题，认为内部成本不合理、外部成本不完整是煤炭资源价格机制的主要缺陷，并提出了完善煤炭等主要能源种类的价格形成机制。
[Abstract]:Energy is the material basis for the existence and development of human economy and society. Without energy support, there will be no basic production activities. China is the fastest growing country in the world's large economies. Many experts believe that China is still in the period of accelerating industrialization and urbanization. The moderate growth of China's economy will continue for a long time. However, we still need to consider that we do not have enough energy to sustain the sustained growth we need for development. What kind of energy prices can effectively meet the needs of China's economic growth? Therefore, energy prices, economic growth and goods are needed. The organic link between monetary policy has been studied deeply.
On the basis of absorbing the relevant literatures and research results at home and abroad, this paper first discusses the formation mechanism of energy price, aiming to have a clear understanding of the core content of this paper-energy price; secondly, it studies the relationship between energy price and the price of related industries and the relationship between energy price and the total price level. The next step is to study the relationship between energy consumption and total output to provide prerequisites; thirdly, on the basis of economic growth theory, the relationship between energy consumption and total output is studied by introducing energy factors into Cobb-Douglas production function; thirdly, on the basis of monetary and monetary policy theory, the energy price, total output and currency are studied. The relationship between policies is the core of this paper. Finally, on the basis of the above research, the paper puts forward policy recommendations on energy price, monetary policy regulation and energy development. Method.
The main conclusions of this paper are:
(1) China's energy price formation mechanism can not make the price mechanism, the lever of resource allocation, play its due role. It is necessary to fully compensate the internal and external costs of energy resources, i.e. energy prices should reflect the value of resources themselves and the environmental costs brought about by exploration, exploitation and use. The reform of the resource tax and fee system should be carried out to break the monopoly pattern and introduce the competition mechanism so that the price mechanism can really guide the rational distribution of energy resources.
(2) China's energy prices are closely related to the prices of related industries and even to the total price level. The rise of energy prices will eventually lead to the rise of the total price level, and the impact of energy prices on producer price index and consumer price index is inconsistent.
(3) There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. After the implementation of the market economic system, China's energy intensity has been significantly reduced and energy efficiency has been significantly improved due to the strengthening of market constraints on micro-subjects.
(4) Reasonable monetary policy should be adopted to regulate the relationship between energy price and total price level and between energy price and total output. However, as an important tool of monetary policy, money supply and interest rate do not play a significant role in China. The main reason is that foreign exchange accounts lead to the passivity of money supply tools and interest rates. The lower marketization makes the adjustment of interest rate very limited, which requires the innovation of monetary policy tools, the liberation of the two existing tools, and the use of new financial derivatives for macro-control.
The innovations of this paper are as follows:
(1) Based on the economic growth theory and the national income theory, this paper makes a comprehensive study of the relationship between the long-term and short-term energy prices, total output and monetary policy. This research path is helpful to reveal the organic relationship between the three factors in an all-round way, and makes a quantitative study on the basis of qualitative analysis, which is helpful to understand quantitatively the three variables. The relationship between them.
(2) Based on input-output technology, this paper quantitatively studies the relationship between various energy prices such as coal, electricity, oil and the prices of related industries, and puts forward a series of price transmission chains around the energy industry, which provides a basis for macro-policy regulation and price fluctuation of energy industry-related industries.
(3) Based on the empirical analysis of energy price and monetary policy variables, and combined with the monetary policy theory, this paper holds that the traditional monetary policy regulation is still applicable in China, but when the price of energy price fluctuations caused by cost-driven price increases, the current monetary policy tools in the adjustment of money supply Fossilization needs to accelerate the marketization of interest rates or achieve new goals by means of new financial instruments.
(4) Systematically investigating the price formation mechanism of all kinds of main energy resources, especially the price formation mechanism of coal resources in China, analyzing the problems existing in the price formation mechanism of coal resources, and pointing out that unreasonable internal cost and incomplete external cost are the main defects of the price mechanism of coal resources, and proposing to improve the price formation mechanism of coal and other major energy resources. Class price formation mechanism.
【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F224;F426.2;F822.0

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