操纵人民币汇率的可能与现实
发布时间：2018-11-04 21:48
【摘要】：本文梳理了名义汇率直接和间接影响贸易差额的各种可能性,指出贸易差额可能受名义汇率的影响,但这种影响是不确定的。本文采集了2005年7月到2008年12月月度数据,运用协整-误差修正方法检验人民币/美元名义汇率与中美双边贸易差额的关系。协整方程估计结果显示中国对美国贸易顺差与人民币/美元名义汇率成反向关系,且参数估计显著。误差修正模型显示名义汇率不是中美贸易差额的原因。由于协整检验、误差修正模型都没有发现名义汇率与贸易差额有正向关系,说明中国政府无法依靠"操纵人民币汇率",令人民币低估以扩大净出口。
[Abstract]:This paper combs the various possibilities of direct and indirect influence of nominal exchange rate on trade balance, and points out that trade balance may be affected by nominal exchange rate, but this influence is uncertain. This paper collects monthly data from July 2005 to December 2008 and tests the relationship between the nominal RMB / US dollar exchange rate and the bilateral trade balance between China and the United States by using the co-integration error correction method. The results of cointegration equation show that China's trade surplus with the United States is inversely related to the nominal exchange rate of RMB / US dollar, and the parameter estimates are significant. The error correction model shows that nominal exchange rate is not the cause of Sino-American trade balance. As a result of cointegration tests, the error correction models have not found a positive relationship between the nominal exchange rate and the trade balance, indicating that the Chinese government cannot rely on "manipulating the RMB exchange rate" to make the RMB undervalued in order to expand net exports.
【作者单位】： 对外经济贸易大学经济学系;对外经济贸易大学数量经济学系;
【基金】：“新世纪优秀人才支持计划”(资助编号NCET-08-0762) 教育部社科研究规划基金项目(09YJA790037)支持
【分类号】：F224;F832.6
[Abstract]:This paper combs the various possibilities of direct and indirect influence of nominal exchange rate on trade balance, and points out that trade balance may be affected by nominal exchange rate, but this influence is uncertain. This paper collects monthly data from July 2005 to December 2008 and tests the relationship between the nominal RMB / US dollar exchange rate and the bilateral trade balance between China and the United States by using the co-integration error correction method. The results of cointegration equation show that China's trade surplus with the United States is inversely related to the nominal exchange rate of RMB / US dollar, and the parameter estimates are significant. The error correction model shows that nominal exchange rate is not the cause of Sino-American trade balance. As a result of cointegration tests, the error correction models have not found a positive relationship between the nominal exchange rate and the trade balance, indicating that the Chinese government cannot rely on "manipulating the RMB exchange rate" to make the RMB undervalued in order to expand net exports.
【作者单位】： 对外经济贸易大学经济学系;对外经济贸易大学数量经济学系;
【基金】：“新世纪优秀人才支持计划”(资助编号NCET-08-0762) 教育部社科研究规划基金项目(09YJA790037)支持
【分类号】：F224;F832.6
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