我国黄金价格影响因素实证研究

发布时间：2019-02-13 20:29

【摘要】：兼具商品属性和金融属性于一身的黄金在20世纪70年代之前价格一直比较稳定,由于不再与美元挂钩,其价格就开始发生剧烈的变动,由70年代初的30美元每盎司一直涨到2011年1900美元每盎司,巨大的价差引起各方广泛关注。此外,由于黄金的特殊性,也使得国内外诸多学者对黄金价格的变动进行实证和理论研究。我国从最近几年以来,不论是黄金产量还是黄金需求量都处于世界前列,因而对我国黄金价格影响因素的研究就具有一定的理论和实践意义。本文从黄金的发展状况出发,重点研究了国际金价和国内金价的影响因素,并对我国黄金价格影响因素进行了实证研究。本文共分五章,第一章是绪论,主要介绍了研究的背景、思路、研究方法以及创新点等。第二章在分析了国际金价和国内金价关系的基础上了,引出国际金价的定价机制以及国内黄金市场的发展状况,进而分析国内的研究现状。第三章主要是国际金价和国内金价影响因素的理论分析,综合国内外的相关研究,黄金价格主要和黄金的供求、美元、石油、CPI、宏观经济状况以及一些其他的因素有关。第四章主要针对我国黄金价格影响因素所做的实证研究,通过分析选取合适的指标,先对指标进行ADF检验、共线性检验、Granger因果检验,然后选取合适的指标建立VAR模型,继而对模型进行平稳性检验,以确定模型的准确性。第五章是结论和建议,实证研究表明国内黄金价格除受到自身价格的影响之外,还同汇率、外汇储备、GDP以及企业家景气信心指数有关。通过对这四个指标的Granger因果检验,我们能够进一步确认这些指标和黄金价格之间是否具有直接的因果关系。本章在最后针对我国不具备黄金定价权的问题,分析了国际国内的条件,为我国谋求黄金定价权提出了自己的建议。本文通过对我国黄金价格影响因素的实证研究,确定了影响我国黄金价格的几个主要因素,同时对我国黄金话语权也给出了相应的建议。由于黄金价格影响因素的复杂性,再加上我国的特殊国情,本文的研究还有待进一步的深入。此外,本文还对今后的研究方向做了一些展望,例如我国黄金储备的比例问题,以及如何更好的规范和发展我国的黄金市场,为我国谋求黄金定价权提供更有利的条件。
[Abstract]:Gold, which has both commodity and financial attributes, remained relatively stable until the 1970s. Since it is no longer pegged to the dollar, its price has begun to change dramatically. From $30 a troy ounce in the early 1970s to $1900 an ounce in 2011, the huge spread has attracted widespread attention. In addition, because of the particularity of gold, many scholars at home and abroad have carried out empirical and theoretical research on the change of gold price. In recent years, both gold production and gold demand have been in the forefront of the world, so the study on the factors affecting the gold price in China has a certain theoretical and practical significance. Starting from the development of gold, this paper focuses on the influence factors of international and domestic gold prices, and makes an empirical study on the influencing factors of gold prices in China. This paper is divided into five chapters, the first chapter is an introduction, mainly introduces the research background, ideas, research methods and innovation. Based on the analysis of the relationship between international gold price and domestic gold price, the second chapter introduces the pricing mechanism of international gold price and the development of domestic gold market, and then analyzes the current situation of domestic research. The third chapter mainly analyzes the influence factors of international gold price and domestic gold price, synthesizes the domestic and foreign related research, the gold price is mainly related to the gold supply and demand, the dollar, the oil, the CPI, macroeconomic situation and some other factors. The fourth chapter mainly focuses on the empirical research on the influencing factors of gold price in China. By analyzing and selecting the appropriate indicators, the author carries out the ADF test, the co-linear test, the Granger causality test, and then selects the appropriate indicators to establish the VAR model. Then the model is tested on the stability to determine the accuracy of the model. The fifth chapter is the conclusion and suggestion. The empirical study shows that the domestic gold price is not only influenced by its own price, but also related to the exchange rate, foreign exchange reserve, GDP and entrepreneur confidence index. Through the Granger causality test of these four indicators, we can further confirm whether there is a direct causal relationship between these indicators and the gold price. At the end of this chapter, aiming at the problem that our country does not have gold pricing power, we analyze the international and domestic conditions, and put forward some suggestions for our country to seek gold pricing power. Based on the empirical study of the factors affecting the gold price in China, this paper determines the main factors that affect the gold price in China, and gives some corresponding suggestions on the right to speak of gold in China. Because of the complexity of the influence factors of gold price and the special situation of our country, the research of this paper needs to be further studied. In addition, this paper also makes some prospects for future research, such as the proportion of gold reserves in China, and how to better regulate and develop the gold market in China to provide more favorable conditions for our country to seek gold pricing power.
【学位授予单位】：天津师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.54;F426.32;F224

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