后危机时期中国货币政策中介目标的选择研究

发布时间：2019-03-18 16:37

【摘要】：实现货币政策最终目标的关键要意就决定于准确的选择货币政策的中介目标，货币政策的传导机制是不是能够很好的运行，运行过程是不是足够顺畅都与货币政策中介目标的可测性，可控性和相关性有着密切关系。一个国家要选择一种适合本国经济的经济指标作为该国的中介目标需要考虑很多问题。不仅要考察此种中介目标的可测性、可控性和相关性，还要根据各国当时所处的金融环境对各种经济指标进行筛选，从而选出最适合的指标成为货币政策的中介目标。目前，我国正处于由美国次贷危机引发的全球性金融危机后的经济复苏阶段，货币供应量仍旧作为我国唯一的货币政策中介目标被沿用至今。但随着经济全球化步伐的加快，我国的经济环境也在随着不断的更替，我国目前使用的中介目标：货币供应量的不适宜性已经逐渐显露出来。这主要表现在我国的基础货币不断显现出的内生性、货币的流通速度和货币乘数的不稳定性等问题上。在世界上很多国家都根据本国的国情在使用通货膨胀率、利率、或者汇率作为本国的中介目标，，选择这些经济指标作为中介目标对其经济运行环境都有着特定的要求，而在当前这一特殊时期我国所处的经济环境还不是非常成熟，还没有完全具备上述三种备选的中介目标所需要达到的条件。所以在我国目前的经济环境下，我国还应继续采用以货币供应量做为货币政策的中介目标，同时对以货币供应量为中介目标的传导机制作出进一步的完善，提出一系列改进措施：重新修订货币供应量的统计口径；完善外汇管理制度；疏通货币政策的传导机制；提高中央银行的独立性等。但是随着经济的不断发展，经济全球化全面覆盖，货币供应量的有效性降低是不能被改变的，我们应该积极的推进利率的市场化，为将来我国从以货币供应量为货币政策中介目标转变为以利率为中介目标创造条件。
[Abstract]:The key to realize the ultimate goal of monetary policy is to decide on the medium goal of the accurate choice of monetary policy, whether the conduction mechanism of monetary policy can be operated well, whether the operation process is sufficiently smooth and the measurable property of the intermediary target of the monetary policy, The controllability and the correlation are closely related. A country would need to consider a number of issues as the country's intermediary goal by selecting an economic indicator suitable for its economy. It is not only to study the measurability, controllability and correlation of such an intermediate target, but also to filter various economic indicators according to the financial environment at that time, so as to select the most suitable index to be the medium target of monetary policy. At present, China is in the stage of economic recovery after the global financial crisis triggered by the American subprime crisis, and the supply of money is still used as the only medium target of the monetary policy in China. But with the acceleration of the pace of economic globalization, the economic environment of our country is changing with the changing of the economy. This is mainly manifested in the inner-nature, the circulation speed of the currency and the instability of the currency multiplier in the basic currency of our country. On the basis of national conditions, many countries in the world use the inflation rate, the interest rate, or the exchange rate as the intermediary goal of the country, and choose these economic indicators as the intermediary target to have specific needs for their economic operation environment In the present special period, the economic environment in which our country is located is not very mature yet, and there is no one that needs to be achieved by the above-mentioned three alternative intermediate targets Therefore, in the present economic environment of our country, our country should continue to use the monetary supply as the medium target of monetary policy, and at the same time, make further improvement to the conduction mechanism of the medium target of the money supply, and put forward a series of improvement measures. Application: re-revise the statistical diameter of the money supply; improve the foreign exchange management system; dredge the conduction mechanism of monetary policy; and improve the independence of the central bank However, with the development of the economy and the comprehensive coverage of the economic globalization, the effectiveness of the money supply is not changed, and we should actively promote the market of interest rate In the future, we change from the money supply to the medium target of the monetary policy to create the strip with the interest rate as the intermediate target
【学位授予单位】：山东财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F822.0;F224

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