基于系统动力学的冰雪旅游业发展模式研究

发布时间：2018-01-18 13:04

  本文关键词：基于系统动力学的冰雪旅游业发展模式研究　出处：《辽宁工程技术大学》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 冰雪旅游业 动力系统 模式 保障措施 系统仿真

【摘要】：冰雪旅游业在社会经济发展的地位越来越重要,对区域经济影响日渐明显,成为众多区域的发展目标之一。中国的冰雪旅游业发展态势良好,但在发展中还存在若干问题,因此对冰雪旅游业进行深入研究,无论从冰雪旅游业自身发展和现实需求出发,或是从区域稳定发展和经济持续增长考虑,都显得十分迫切和必要。本文采用灰色关联方法、系统动力学仿真方法,运用Vensim PLE软件对冰雪旅游业发展模式进行研究。通过冰雪旅游业的动力系统功能与特性,选取了资源、经济、文化和环境4个子系统的22个指标,创新性的构建了冰雪旅游业发展动力系统模型,并对哈尔滨冰雪旅游业发展模式进行选择并提出相关建议。研究结果表明：(1)提出了四种冰雪旅游业发展模式。国外冰雪旅游业发展比较完善,国内冰雪旅游业尚处于发展阶段,通过对国内外冰雪旅游业发展模式的分析及总结,提出了资源驱动型、经济高效型、文化兼顾型、环境保护型四种冰雪旅游业发展模式。(2)确定了冰雪旅游业发展动力系统及动力因素。以冰雪旅游业4种发展模式为基础,构建冰雪旅游业动力系统结构模型,指出动力系统包括资源子系统、经济子系统、文化子系统和环境子系统。(3)构建了冰雪旅游业发展模式的选择模型。运用系统动力学的原理与方法,分析冰雪旅游业发展系统的因果反馈结构,构建24条反馈回路及4个动力子系统因果关系图。通过系统变量及指标确定,构建冰雪旅游业发展模式选择模型,通过系统模型的函数关系式及真实性检验,对冰雪旅游业发展模式进行选择。(4)选择了哈尔滨冰雪旅游业发展模式。根据哈尔滨冰雪旅游业的发展现状,分析冰雪旅游业动力系统关联性,构建72个函数关系式并进行真实性检验,对哈尔滨冰雪旅游业发展模式进行选择,测度出文化兼顾型模式为哈尔滨冰雪旅游业的理想模式,其模式选择结果符合哈尔滨冰雪旅游业现实情况。最后提出合理利用资源,突出地域特色；深化冰雪旅游文化,树立旅游品牌；加大环境保护力度,宣传冰雪旅游新理念等措施。
[Abstract]:Ice and snow tourism is playing a more and more important role in the social and economic development, and its impact on regional economy is becoming more and more obvious, which has become one of the development goals of many regions. China's ice and snow tourism has a good development trend. However, there are still a number of problems in the development of ice and snow tourism, so the in-depth study of snow and ice tourism, whether from the development of snow and ice tourism itself and the actual needs, or from the regional stable development and economic growth considerations. Grey correlation method and system dynamics simulation method are used in this paper. The development model of ice and snow tourism is studied by using Vensim PLE software. Through the function and characteristic of the dynamic system of ice and snow tourism, the resources and economy are selected. The 22 indexes of the four subsystems of culture and environment are innovatively constructed to build the dynamic system model of ice and snow tourism development. The research results show that there are four kinds of ice and snow tourism development models. The development of ice and snow tourism abroad is relatively perfect. The ice and snow tourism in China is still in the developing stage. Through the analysis and summary of the development mode of ice and snow tourism at home and abroad, the paper puts forward the resource-driven, economic and efficient, cultural balanced. The four kinds of ice and snow tourism development models of environmental protection type. 2) the dynamic system and dynamic factors of ice and snow tourism development are determined, which is based on the four ice and snow tourism development models. The structure model of ice and snow tourism power system is constructed, and it is pointed out that the power system includes resource subsystem and economic subsystem. Based on the theory and method of system dynamics, this paper analyzes the causal feedback structure of ice and snow tourism development system. 24 feedback loops and 4 power subsystem causality diagrams were constructed. Through the determination of system variables and indicators, the model of ice and snow tourism development mode selection was constructed, and the functional relationship of the system model and the authenticity of the system model were tested. The development model of ice and snow tourism in Harbin is chosen. According to the present situation of ice and snow tourism in Harbin, the relationship between ice and snow tourism power system is analyzed. To construct 72 functional relationships and verify the authenticity of Harbin ice and snow tourism development model selection, and measure that the cultural model of ice and snow tourism is the ideal model of Harbin ice and snow tourism. The results of model selection are in line with the actual situation of ice and snow tourism in Harbin. Finally, the rational utilization of resources and regional characteristics are put forward. Deepening ice and snow tourism culture and establishing tourism brand; Increase environmental protection, promote ice and snow tourism new ideas and other measures.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁工程技术大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F592.7
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本文编号：1441059