京津冀区域旅游业发展差异及影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-01-22 15:52

本文关键词： 京津冀区域旅游业差异性影响因素面板模型 VAR模型　出处：《河北经贸大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：旅游业作为战略性支柱产业,拉动这一个国家或地区的经济发展。京津冀地区的旅游发展存在着区域不平衡现象,这种不平衡性不利于其旅游整体发展水平的提升,必定会阻碍其旅游业可持续发展的顺利进行,也不利于京津冀协同发展重大战略的顺利实施。通过对京津冀区域旅游发展的差异分析、影响因素研究,可以发掘其内在发展潜力,进而更好地促进京津冀区域旅游业协调发展。在对有关区域旅游业发展的文献进行大量查阅之后,本文首先分析和描述了京津冀区域旅游发展情况和现存的问题,其次分别从总体差异、国内旅游与入境旅游差异两个方面对2002-2014年京津冀区域旅游发展差异进行了定量分析,得到结论:总体上,京津冀区域旅游业的绝对差异呈现扩大趋势(但近年来缩小了),相对差异呈现缩小趋势,造成旅游发展总体上的差异的最主要原因是国内旅游方面的差异的存在,变异系数总体呈现下降趋势。之后对京津冀区域旅游业发展的影响因素进行实证研究,以旅游总收入为因变量,居民人均可支配收入、第三产业增加值、旅游业从业人员数、公路里程、铁路营业里程为自变量,利用2002-2014年的数据构建面板模型。得到结论:居民收入水平、第三产业增加值、旅游业从业人员数及公路里程对旅游总收入的影响是显著的,且均存在正的影响;而铁路营业里程对旅游总收入的影响不显著。然后运用VAR模型分别对京津冀三地区旅游业发展的影响因素进行实证分析,模型估计结果显示:北京地区的以上四个显著因素中对当地旅游总收入的影响和贡献率的排序为居民人均可支配收入、第三产业增加值、旅游从业人数、公路里程;天津地区的跟北京一样;而河北地区的与北京和天津有所差别,依次为第三产业增加值、居民人均可支配收入、公路里程、旅游从业人员数。本文最后针对分析结果,提出促进京津冀区域旅游协同发展的建议:一是确保居民收入稳定增长,二是注重产业结构的调整,三是加强交通基础建设,四是重视旅游人才的培养,五是加强地区间旅游合作。
[Abstract]:As a strategic pillar industry, tourism promotes the economic development of this country or region. There is a regional imbalance in the tourism development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. This imbalance is not conducive to the promotion of the overall level of tourism development, and will inevitably hinder the smooth progress of its tourism sustainable development. It is also not conducive to the smooth implementation of the major strategy of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development. Through the analysis of the differences in the development of tourism in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the study of the influencing factors, we can explore its internal development potential. Further better promote the coordinated development of tourism in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. After a large number of references on the development of regional tourism. This paper first analyzes and describes the development of tourism in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the existing problems, followed by the overall difference. The difference between domestic tourism and inbound tourism is analyzed quantitatively from 2002 to 2014. The conclusion is as follows: on the whole. The absolute difference of tourism in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is increasing (but in recent years, the relative difference is shrinking. The main reason for the overall difference in tourism development is the existence of domestic tourism differences, the coefficient of variation of the overall downward trend. Then the impact factors of tourism development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are studied empirically. Take the total tourism income as the dependent variable, the resident per capita disposable income, the tertiary industry added value, the tourism employment number, the road mileage, the railroad business mileage is the independent variable. Using the data from 2002 to 2014 to build the panel model. The conclusion is: the income level of residents, the added value of the tertiary industry, the number of tourism employees and road mileage have a significant impact on the total tourism income. All of them had positive effects. The impact of railway mileage on tourism revenue is not significant. Then the VAR model is used to analyze the impact factors of tourism development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The results of the model estimate show that the order of the above four significant factors in Beijing is the per capita disposable income of residents, the added value of the tertiary industry, and the number of tourism practitioners. Road mileage; Tianjin is the same as Beijing; Hebei is different from Beijing and Tianjin in the order of added value of tertiary industry, per capita disposable income of residents, road mileage and the number of tourism employees. The paper puts forward some suggestions to promote the coordinated development of tourism in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region: first, to ensure the steady growth of residents' income; second, to pay attention to the adjustment of industrial structure; third, to strengthen the transportation infrastructure; fourth, to attach importance to the cultivation of tourism talents. Fifth, strengthen regional tourism cooperation.
【学位授予单位】：河北经贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F592.7

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