水府庙国家湿地公园旅游收入结构动态分析与预测

发布时间：2018-03-19 06:24

本文选题：收入结构　切入点：收入分析　出处：《中南林业科技大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：湖泊型湿地作为一种独特的自然资源与复杂生态环境的重要组成部分,不但可以净化环境、涵盖水源、调节气候、减少噪音、防洪减灾、调节径流,而且为很多野生动植物、水生动植物的生长提供了良好的栖息地与繁衍地,在维系区域生态系统的发展和进化过程等方面发挥了极其重要的作用。水府庙国家湿地公园作为湖泊型湿地公园,拥有湖南省内不可多得的一片开阔、安全、可开发旅游的大面积水域,是环长株潭地区面积最大的湿地资源之一。伴随着生态旅游的蓬勃发展和人们生活水平的提高,水府庙国家湿地公园以其独特的魅力吸引了越来越多的的游客,更是成为当地居民休闲游玩的首选之地。在旅游市场竞争日趋激烈的形势下,真正实现水府庙国家湿地公园生态效益、经济效益和社会效益的统一显得尤为关键。本文对水府庙国家湿地公园2012年和2013年两期的旅游收入分别进行收入构成分析、总收入动态变化分析、不同类型收入季节性变化分析和总收入时间序列分析,并基于马尔科夫预测方法对其旅游总收入和旅游收入结构进行动态预测。预测结果表明,水府庙国家湿地公园2014年至2016年的总收入分别为11393870.33元、11475662.33元、11504266.02元。在未来的某个时期内,水府庙国家湿地公园的旅游收入结构将达到一个稳定的状态：餐饮收入最终稳定在25.8%的收入份额,相对于当前近五成的收入占比,会出现明显的大幅度下降趋势,即吃喝为主的物质旅游消费向精神消费转变；客房收入将获得较大程度的增涨,最终能提供45.2%的收入来源；其他各类收入也将有所增加,最终能提供29.0%的收入来源。结合分析和预测结果,对水府庙国家湿地公园未来的发展提出了三点建议：(1)充分挖掘旅游区的资源潜力,对旅游产品进行优化；(2)针对旅游淡季,积极开展市场宣传促销活动并发挥价格杠杆的调节作用；(3)大力加强区域旅游协作。
[Abstract]:As an important part of a unique natural resource and complex ecological environment, lake wetland can not only purify the environment, cover water sources, regulate climate, reduce noise, prevent flood and reduce disaster, regulate runoff, but also for many wild animals and plants. The growth of aquatic animals and plants provides a good habitat and breeding ground, and plays an extremely important role in maintaining the development and evolution of regional ecosystem. With a vast open, safe and exploitable area of water in Hunan Province, it is one of the largest wetland resources in the Chang-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan region. With the rapid development of eco-tourism and the improvement of people's living standards, Shuifu Temple National Wetland Park has attracted more and more tourists with its unique charm, and has become the first choice for local residents to play. It is very important to realize the ecological benefit, economic benefit and social benefit of Shuifu Miao National Wetland Park. In this paper, the income composition, the dynamic change of total income, the seasonal variation of different types of income and the analysis of time series of total income in the two periods of Shuifumiao National Wetland Park on 2012 and 2013, respectively, are analyzed. The results show that the total income of Shuifumiao National Wetland Park from 2014 to 2016 is 11393870.33 yuan (RMB 11475662.33 Yuan) or 11504266.02 Yuan respectively. The tourism income structure of the Shuifumiao National Wetland Park will reach a stable state: the income share of the catering industry will eventually stabilize at 25.8%, compared with the current income of nearly 50%, there will be a significant downward trend. That is, the consumption of material tourism, which is mainly eating and drinking, will be transformed into spiritual consumption; the income of guest rooms will increase to a large extent, eventually providing a source of income of 45.2%; and other types of income will also increase. In the end, it can provide a revenue source of 29.0%. Combined with the analysis and forecast results, this paper puts forward three suggestions on the future development of the Shuifumiao National Wetland Park: 1) fully tap the potential resources of the tourist area, and optimize the tourism products. Actively carry out marketing and promotion activities and play a regulating role in price leverage) strengthen regional tourism cooperation.
【学位授予单位】：中南林业科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F592.7;F224

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