实际汇率和收入影响下的国际出境旅游需求变动趋势——基于55个国家面板数据的分析

发布时间：2018-03-19 11:59

本文选题：国际出境旅游需求　切入点：实际汇率　出处：《经济管理》2014年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文构建了包含居民收入水平和实际汇率变动两个因素的国际出境旅游需求理论模型,并建立了个体时点双固定模型,对全球55个国家2003~2011年期间的面板数据进行了计量分析。在此基础上,预测了全球主要客源国出境旅游需求的变动趋势。研究结果表明:第一,居民收入和实际汇率变动是决定国际旅游需求的最主要因素,可以解释国际出境旅游需求的大部分波动现象;第二,国际旅游需求对收入的弹性大于对实际汇率的弹性,因此,在两个因素变动率相同的情况下,价格效应小于收入效应;最后,根据模型对未来国际出境旅游市场的格局进行了预测。本文认为,以西欧、北美为代表的传统出境旅游大国,其相对份额将下降,而以"金砖国家"为代表的三个区域将崛起:一是以中国、印度为代表的亚洲发展中国家;二是以巴西、委内瑞拉、哥伦比亚为代表的南美发展中国家;三是以俄罗斯、罗马尼亚、斯洛伐克、波兰等为代表的东欧国家。
[Abstract]:This paper constructs the international outbound tourism demand model includes the income level of residents and the real exchange rate of two factors, and the establishment of individual time double fixed model, the panel data of 55 countries during 2003~2011 were analyzed. On this basis, the changing trend of outbound tourism demand forecast of global major source countries. The results show that: first, the residents' income and the real exchange rate is the main factor of international tourism demand, can explain most of the fluctuations phenomenon of international outbound tourism demand; second, the international tourism demand is greater than on the real exchange rate elasticity of income elasticity, therefore, changes in the rate of two factors under the condition of the same price effect less than the income effect; finally, according to the model prediction of the international outbound tourism market pattern in the future. This paper argues that in Western Europe, the United States as the representative of the North The outbound tourism country, its relative share will decline, and the three area in the "BRIC countries" as the representative of the rise: one is to Chinese, India as the representative of the developing countries in Asia; two in Brazil, Venezuela and Columbia as the representative of the South American developing countries; three is to Russia, Romania, Slovakia, Eastern Europe countries the representative of Poland.

【作者单位】：北京交通大学经济管理学院;陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院;
【基金】：国家旅游局重点课题“国际汇率变动对国际旅游市场影响研究”(11I00420)
【分类号】：F224;F591

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