基于游客体验的森林公园旅游承载力评价研究

发布时间：2018-03-29 19:38

本文选题：可接受变化极限　切入点：游客体验效用　出处：《大连理工大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：以旅游承载力为核心的现代森林公园管理框架,是实现资源可持续利用和保证游客旅游体验效用的重要工具,但目前仍然缺少科学有效的承载力评价方法,特别是关于如何确定承载力评价标准一直存在着争议。据此,本文在理论方法上,根据承载力传统概念和改进的LAC基本理论,分别从游客体验效用、环境接受概率、旅游需求预期这三个角度制定评价标准,从游客感知间接刻画客观环境条件水平,并将环境状态作为评价旅游承载力的观测对象,在评价环境承载力状态的同时,研究环境的其它承载状态,包括最佳状态、最差状态、可接受状态、不可接受状态。另外,考虑到旅游承载力研究大多只关注当前条件下景区的最大游客容量,而忽视了可能影响承载力的环境要素,故本文从游客的环境感知入手,在探究承载力测量方法的同时,着重研究了环境要素边际变化对于使用率阀值的影响,以期从游客效用和决策角度对旅游承载力研究所遇到的问题做出解释。本研究方法丰富了旅游承载力的研究内容和研究视角,也为管理部门提高景区承载力提供了理论依据。本研究主要完成的工作内容如下： (1)运用游客旅游成本效益理论推导出承载力评价标准,通过随机效用函数和选择实验方法获得游客体验的净效用值,以及各环境属性的效用贡献值,从而得出了环境属性(集)的相应承载状态。结果表明：首先,“植被覆盖率”和“人文景观保护程度”状态的改善对游客体验效用起到正向影响,“垃圾数量”和“拥挤程度”状态的恶化对游客体验效用有着负面影响,游客对“拥挤程度”相对比较敏感；其次,根据环境属性的边际价值贡献分析,“植被覆盖率”的承载力介于60%-75%之间,“垃圾数量”的承载力介于6-12件/200m,“拥挤程度”的承载力介于20～30人/100m2。其它环境属性的变化可能使得使用率阀值发生移动；最后,根据承载力判断标准和各环境属性的效用贡献值,可以得到25个潜在环境属性集的状态情况,包括最佳状态、最差状态、不可接受状态、可接受状态以及最接近承载力的状态。 (2)根据游客对环境状态的选择概率和机会比,设定承载力评价标准,并由条件logit模型得出了游客对拥挤程度的接受概率,以及虚拟环境状态与现状的机会比,进而得到了使用率阀和环境的不可接受状态。结果表明：首先,通过概率函数的拟和曲线离散程度可以发现,“垃圾数量”和“古迹保护程度”变化对使用率阀值的影响比较明显；其次,当拥挤程度超过20人/100m2时,游客的拒绝概率会急剧下降到90%以下,并且环境改善对使用率阀值的影响会极其微弱；最后,从环境状态集的机会比得出各环境属性的承载情况,包括可接受状态,不可接受状态、弱不可接受状态。 (3)依据旅游需求理论确定旅游承载力不可接受状态的判定标准,利用陈述性和显示性偏好联合方法,以及混合计数模型与伪面板计数模型,得出虚拟状态下的旅游需求函数,进而对环境的不可接受状态进行了判定。结果表明：首先,从固定影响负二项式模型的具体估计结果可看出,“植被覆盖率”、“垃圾数量”和“人文景观保护程度”属性的改善对旅行次数有着显著的正向影响,垃圾数量增加对旅游需求预期负向边际影响最大；其次,相比之下人文景观保护和拥挤程度,在本模型分析中表现为游客并不十分敏感；最后,通过旅行次数算数平均值、平均值t检验、条件期望、三个标准对旅游需求预期进行了比较,得出了各标准下的不可接受环境属性集。
[Abstract]:The modern Forest Park management framework based on tourism carrying capacity as the core, is to realize the utility of tourist experience of the sustainable utilization of resources and an important tool to ensure, but there is still lack of scientific and effective evaluation method of bearing capacity, especially on how to determine the bearing capacity of a direct evaluation criteria controversial. Accordingly, in this paper according to the basic method. The theory of LAC bearing capacity of the traditional concept and improved, respectively from the tourists experience utility, environmental acceptance probability, tourism demand is expected to three aspects of the evaluation criteria, from the tourists objectively portray indirectly environmental conditions and levels, the state of the environment as the evaluation of the tourism carrying capacity of the observation object, in the state of bearing capacity evaluation of the environment at the same time, the other bearing state of the environment, including the best, worst, acceptable, not acceptable. In addition, considering the bearing capacity of Tourism Many tourists only the largest capacity of the current conditions of scenic spots, and ignore the possible effects of environmental factors on bearing capacity, therefore this article from the environmental perception of tourists, to explore the capacity measurement method at the same time, focusing on the environmental factors to affect the use of marginal change rate threshold, in order to explain the tourism carrying capacity research the problems from tourist utility and policy-making angle. This research method enriches the tourism carrying capacity of the research content and research perspective, but also provides a theoretical basis for the management department to improve the bearing capacity of the scenic spot.
The main contents of this study are as follows:
(1) the use of tourist cost benefit theory to derive the evaluation standard of bearing capacity, through the random utility function and the selection of test methods for net utility tourists experience value, and the environmental attributes of the utility value of the contribution, so that the environmental attributes (set) the corresponding bearing state. The results show that: firstly, the vegetation coverage rate "and" cultural landscape protection "the improvement of tourist experience utility plays a positive effect, the deterioration of the amount of waste" and "crowding" state has a negative effect on tourism experience utility, visitors to the "crowding" is relatively sensitive; secondly, according to the analysis of marginal contribution value of the environmental attribute of vegetation, "the coverage rate of" bearing stress is in the range of 60%-75%, the bearing capacity between 6-12 pieces of /200m waste quantity "," capacity between 20~30 /100m2. other environmental attributes become crowded degree " May the usage threshold shift; finally, according to the judgment standard and the environmental bearing capacity of the utility of attribute value of the contribution, has 25 potential environmental attribute set of the state, including the best, worst, unacceptable, acceptable state and most close to the capacity of the state.
(2) according to the visitors to the state of the environment and opportunity selection probability ratio, setting evaluation criteria of bearing capacity, and the conditions of Logit model that the probability of tourists crowding degree of acceptance, and opportunities for virtual environment condition and current ratio, then obtained the use rate of valve and the environment is not acceptable. The results show that: first discrete degree of curve fitting, the probability function can be found that the number of "garbage" and "relics protection degree" changes to influence the use rate threshold obviously; secondly, when the congestion level of more than 20 people /100m2, tourists rejection probability will drop sharply to below 90%, and improve the environmental impact on the usage rate of the threshold extremely weak; finally, from the state of the environment set the opportunity than environmental attributes bearing condition, including acceptable, unacceptable state, weak unacceptable.
(3) on the basis of the tourism demand theory to determine the standard of tourism carrying capacity is not an acceptable condition, using declarative and revealed preference method, and mixed counting model and pseudo panel counting model, the virtual state of the tourism demand function, and the environment is not acceptable state was assessed. The results showed that: first, see from the fixed effects estimation of specific negative binomial model results, the vegetation coverage rate, number of "garbage" and "cultural landscape protection degree of property improvement has a significant positive effect on the number of trips, an increase in the number of garbage on the tourism demand expected negative marginal effect; secondly, compared with the cultural landscape protection and the degree of congestion in the model is in the form of tourists is not very sensitive; finally, the average travel times, the average value of t test, conditional expectation, three standard The expectation of tourism demand is compared, and the unacceptable set of environmental attributes under each standard is obtained.

【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F592.7

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