汇率变动对加拿大旅游服务贸易收支影响之实证分析

发布时间：2018-03-29 19:40

本文选题：旅游服务　切入点：贸易逆差　出处：《广东外语外贸大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：旅游服务贸易作为国际服务贸易11项分类的其中之一，其对于一国经济增长的贡献度以及外汇创收，平衡贸易收支的重要性已经越来越受到各国政府的重视。作为西方七大工业国之一的加拿大，其旅游统计工作一直走在世界各国的前列，但其旅游服务贸易收支却长期处于逆差状态。基于此，本文试图探究影响加拿大旅游服务贸易收支的主要因素，并从汇率的价格传导机制，汇率的弹性传导机制，以及各变量的动态分析三个层面通过实证模型的设计来分析。首先，在前人研究成果的基础上，总结出影响贸易收支的主要因素，将汇率作为主要影响因素，收入等其他因素作为控制变量。针对服务贸易有别于货物贸易的特殊性，国外已有学者对现有的货物贸易理论分析框架进行改进，得出有入境旅游项的理论模型来分析汇率变动对于旅游服务贸易收支的影响及其动态调整过程。本文在此基础上，选取加拿大1986至2012年间国家旅游统计指标(NTI)的季度数据，进行实证分析。其次，实证分析主要从以下三个层面进行(1)基于汇率的价格传导机制的实证。分别通过价格长期协整方程和旅游服务贸易收支长期协整方程，探讨名义有效汇率变动对于加拿大旅游价格的传导弹性大小，同时从汇率传导视角分析，名义有效汇率下降是否改善旅游服务贸易收支；(2)基于汇率弹性传导机制的实证。通过建立旅游服务贸易出口，进口，贸易收支的三个长期协整方程式，探究马歇尔勒那条件是否成立，实际有效汇率是如何通过弹性理论影响贸易收支的；(3)汇率对旅游服务贸易收支影响的动态VAR模型设计。分析实际有效汇率对于贸易收支的动态影响机制，探究加拿大旅游服务贸易收支的主要影响因素，并分析导致加拿大旅游服务贸易长期逆差的原因。最后，得出以下结论：(1)汇率波动对于旅游价格的传导弹性几乎为零，但对于国内价格的传导弹性大于1，考虑价格传导，名义有效汇率下降有利于改善加拿大旅游服务贸易收支；(2)实际有效汇率的进出口弹性系数的绝对值之和大于1，马歇尔勒纳条件成立，不考虑价格传导，仅从汇率的弹性传导机制分析，，加元贬值，有利于贸易收支的改善，且不存在”J”曲线效应；(3)出境游的价格效应大于收入效应，加拿大国内实际收入提高等供给因素的改善，并不会从出境端恶化旅游服务贸易收支；(4)入境游的收入效应大于价格效应，“口碑效应”明显。入境游客对于汇率的预期会影响其入境旅游决定，而汇率的影响具有短期性，长期来看，逆转贸易收支逆差最根本的途径是要从供给的角度提升加拿大旅游服务贸易的国际竞争力；(5)贸易收支的改善具有良性循环性，具有“马太效应”，因此改善加拿大旅游贸易逆差，实现旅游服务贸易收支平衡势在必行。
[Abstract]:As one of the 11 categories of international trade in services, the contribution of tourism service trade to a country's economic growth and foreign exchange income, and the importance of balancing trade income and expenditure have been paid more and more attention by the governments of all countries.As one of the seven largest industrial countries in the West, Canada has always been in the forefront of tourism statistics work in the world, but its trade balance in tourism services has been in deficit for a long time.Based on this, this paper attempts to explore the main factors affecting Canadian tourism services trade balance, and from the exchange rate price transmission mechanism, exchange rate elasticity transmission mechanism,And three levels of dynamic analysis of variables through empirical model design to analyze.Firstly, on the basis of the previous research results, the paper summarizes the main factors that affect the trade balance, taking the exchange rate as the main influencing factor, and other factors such as income as the control variable.In view of the particularity of trade in services different from trade in goods, foreign scholars have improved the existing theoretical analysis framework of trade in goods.The theoretical model with entry tourism item is obtained to analyze the influence of exchange rate change on the trade balance of tourism services and its dynamic adjustment process.On this basis, the quarterly data of Canada National Tourism Statistics Index from 1986 to 2012 are selected for empirical analysis.Secondly, the empirical analysis mainly from the following three levels) based on the exchange rate of price transmission mechanism.Through the long-term cointegration equation of price and the long-term cointegration equation of trade balance in tourism services, the paper discusses the conduction elasticity of nominal effective exchange rate change to Canadian tourism price, and analyzes it from the angle of exchange rate transmission.Whether the decline of nominal effective exchange rate can improve the balance of trade in tourism services is based on the exchange rate elasticity transmission mechanism.Through the establishment of three long-term cointegration equations for the export, import, and balance of trade in tourism services, we will explore whether the conditions in Machelle are valid.How does the real effective exchange rate affect the trade balance through the elasticity theory? the dynamic VAR model of the impact of the exchange rate on the trade balance of tourism services is designed.This paper analyzes the dynamic influence mechanism of the real effective exchange rate on the trade balance, probes into the main influencing factors of Canada's tourism services trade balance, and analyzes the reasons leading to the long-term deficit of Canada's tourism services trade.Finally, we draw the following conclusion: (1) Exchange rate fluctuations have almost zero conductive elasticity for tourism prices, but for domestic prices, the conduction elasticity is greater than 1. Consider price conduction.The decline of nominal effective exchange rate is conducive to improving the balance of trade in tourism services in Canada. (2) the sum of the absolute value of the import and export elasticity coefficient of the real effective exchange rate is greater than 1. The Marshall Lerner condition is established, regardless of price transmission.Only from the elastic transmission mechanism of exchange rate, the depreciation of the Canadian dollar is beneficial to the improvement of the trade balance, and there is no "J" curve effect. The price effect of outbound travel is greater than the income effect, and the improvement of supply factors such as the increase of real income in Canada, etc.The income effect of inbound tour is greater than that of price, and the "word-of-mouth effect" is obvious.The expectation of the foreign exchange rate of the inbound tourists will affect their decision on inbound tourism, and the impact of the exchange rate is short-term and long-term.The most fundamental way to reverse the trade balance deficit is to improve the international competitiveness of Canada's tourism services trade from the point of view of supply. (5) the improvement of trade balance has a virtuous circle and has the "Matthew effect".Therefore, it is imperative to improve Canada's tourism trade deficit and achieve balance of trade in tourism services.
【学位授予单位】：广东外语外贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F837.11;F757.11;F597.11

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