基于EEMD的我国入境旅游客源市场多尺度分析及预测

发布时间：2018-05-14 04:10

本文选题：入境旅游 + 客源　；参考：《商业经济研究》2017年10期

【摘要】：本文运用集合经验模态分解方法(EEMD)对我国近十年来入境旅游客源的时间多尺度特征及趋势进行了研究。结果表明:第一,入境旅游客源总量及港澳台同胞客源以3个月季节性波动为主,外国人客源以高、低频周期波动相间发生为主。第二,以周期波动为主且无明显趋势变化的客源市场包括:中国香港、泰国、印尼、美国、英国和德国以3个月周期为主;中国澳门以3、78个月高、低频周期为主;新加坡、马来西亚分别以4、5个月的高频周期为主。第三,具有显著趋势变化的客源市场包括:中国台湾、蒙古、菲律宾、印度、加拿大以显著上升为主,辅以周期性波动相间发生;日本、俄罗斯以显著下降为主,辅以低频周期性波动;法国、澳大利亚以高、低频周期相间波动为主,趋势变化为辅,其中法国为下降态势,澳大利亚为上升态势。文章对我国制定入境旅游相关政策具有理论与实践应用价值。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the characteristics and trends of time and multi-scale of inbound tourist resources in China in recent ten years have been studied by means of empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method. The results show that: first, the total amount of inbound tourist resources and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan compatriots mainly fluctuate seasonally for 3 months, while the foreign tourists are high, and the low frequency periodic fluctuations mainly occur. Second, there are mainly cyclical markets with no obvious trend: Hong Kong, China, Thailand, Indonesia, the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany with a three-month cycle; Macao, China, with a 378 month high and a low frequency cycle; and Singapore, Malaysia has a high frequency cycle of 4 months and 5 months respectively. Third, the tourist markets with significant trend changes include: China, Taiwan, Mongolia, the Philippines, India, Canada, with a significant increase, supplemented by cyclical fluctuations; Japan, Russia, with a significant decline. In France, Australia is dominated by high and low frequency periodic fluctuations, and the trend is supplemented by trend changes, in which France is in a downward trend and Australia is in an upward trend. The article has theoretical and practical application value to make the relevant policy of inbound tourism in our country.
【作者单位】：金陵科技学院人文学院旅游管理系;
【基金】：教育部人文社科研究青年基金项目(13YJC790010);教育部人文社科研究规划基金项目(12YJA790163)
【分类号】：F592

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