河北省森林公园旅游的发展轨迹研究

发布时间：2018-07-17 14:46

【摘要】：森林公园旅游以其休闲避暑、度假、观光等特性逐渐成为了人们生活水平提高后的新的旅游消费热点。但森林公园旅游作为新兴产业，，在发展过程中必然存在一些问题。探讨森林公园旅游的发展轨迹，为森林公园旅游的健康发展寻找出切实可行的措施显得尤为必要。本文通过对河北省森林公园数量、面积、基础设施建设投入、环境建设投入、客流量、收入等指标的变化研究，以及对不同市区进行划分，完整的分析了河北省森林公园旅游发展的基本轨迹。使用计量经济学的方法进行回归分析及预测，得到河北省森林公园旅游收入和客流量以及其增长率，并与“河北省森林公园与森林旅游发展思路”的预期进行对比分析。河北省森林公园发展旅游发展呈现明显的特点，从发展阶段看，受政策和市场环境等因素的影响，河北省的森林公园旅游发展形成平稳发展与快速发展的交替局面，通过回归分析，发现河北省森林公园的旅游收入与客流量有空间上的位移现象及耦合现象。预测得到2014-2020年的河北省森林公园旅游收入和客流量，到2020年，河北省森林公园旅游收入超过7亿元，客流量达到0.118亿人次。森林公园旅游收入将以3.5%-6.8%的增长率递增，客流量将以2.4%-4.4%的增长率递增，森林公园旅游收入和客流量增长率比河北省相关的规划预期要小。相关学者的研究涉及森林旅游的发展历程，一般通过森林公园的建设规划来进行森林旅游业发展趋势的预测，但是还没有通过模型来进行预测。通过VAR模型对森林公园旅游收入以及客流量的区间内和区间外预测，分析预测的结果计算森林公园旅游收入及客流量的增长率，评价当前河北省生态建设政策，为河北省森林公园的健康发展提供相关建议。
[Abstract]:Forest park tourism has gradually become a new tourist consumption hot spot after the improvement of people's living standard because of its characteristics of leisure, summer vacation, sightseeing and so on. However, forest park tourism, as a new industry, must have some problems in the process of development. It is necessary to explore the development track of forest park tourism and find practical measures for the healthy development of forest park tourism. In this paper, the number, area, infrastructure construction, environmental construction, passenger flow and income of forest parks in Hebei Province are studied, and different urban areas are divided. Complete analysis of Hebei Forest Park tourism development of the basic track. The regression analysis and prediction with econometric method are used to obtain the tourism income, passenger flow and the growth rate of forest parks in Hebei Province, and to compare and analyze with the expectation of "the thought of Forest Park and Forest Tourism Development in Hebei Province". The tourism development of forest parks in Hebei Province shows obvious characteristics. From the development stage, influenced by the factors such as policy and market environment, the tourism development of forest parks in Hebei Province has formed an alternate situation of stable development and rapid development. By regression analysis, it is found that there is spatial displacement and coupling phenomenon between tourism income and passenger flow of forest parks in Hebei province. The tourism revenue and passenger flow of forest parks in Hebei Province from 2014-2020 are predicted. By 2020, the tourism income of forest parks in Hebei Province will exceed 700 million yuan, and the passenger flow will reach 11.8 million. The forest park tourism revenue will increase by 3.5-6.8 percent, and the passenger flow will increase by 2.4 percent to 4.4 percent. The growth rate of forest park tourism revenue and passenger flow will be smaller than the forecast of Hebei Province. The research of related scholars involves the development course of forest tourism, generally through the forest park construction planning to predict the trend of forest tourism development, but not through the model to forecast. Based on the VAR model, the paper forecasts the tourism income and passenger flow of forest parks in and out of the region, analyzes and calculates the growth rate of tourism revenue and passenger flow of forest parks, and evaluates the current ecological construction policies of Hebei Province. To provide relevant suggestions for the healthy development of forest parks in Hebei Province.
【学位授予单位】：河北农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F592.7

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