基于景气测度的黑龙江省旅游业景气指数研究

发布时间：2018-07-25 21:22

【摘要】：景气指数是指通过定量方法加工汇总调查中的定性指标,从而综合反映某一特定调查群体或某一社会经济现象所处的状态或发展趋势的一种指标。本文采用美国商务部编制合成指数(CI)的方法,编制黑龙江省旅游行业景气指数,以此作为观测黑龙江省旅游行业波动的综合尺度,并结合当前黑龙江省的经济形势对合成指数进行分析,探究黑龙江省旅游业的周期性规律,对旅游业局势与行业周期波动转折点进行分析研判,从而判定行业整体波动情况和走势,旨在为黑龙江省旅游行业政策的制定和旅游公司的微观经营提供些许参考。
[Abstract]:Boom index is a kind of index which can synthetically reflect the state or development trend of a particular survey group or a certain social economic phenomenon by processing the qualitative index in the survey by quantitative method. This paper uses the method of compiling composite index (CI) by the United States Department of Commerce to compile the tourism industry boom index of Heilongjiang Province, which is used as a comprehensive scale to observe the fluctuation of tourism industry in Heilongjiang Province. Combined with the current economic situation of Heilongjiang Province, the composite index is analyzed, the periodicity of tourism in Heilongjiang Province is explored, and the turning point of tourism situation and industry cycle fluctuation is analyzed and judged. The purpose of this paper is to provide some references for the formulation of tourism industry policy and the micro management of tourism companies in Heilongjiang Province.
【作者单位】：哈尔滨商业大学商业经济研究院;
【基金】：黑龙江省重点培育智库“公共政策与现代服务业创新”资助哈尔滨商业大学学科建设项目“现代服务业支撑龙江振兴发展研究”,项目编号:HX2016001;哈尔滨商业大学青年创新人才项目,项目编号:2016QN045 黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目,项目编号:16MZC01 黑龙江经济社会发展重点研究课题,项目编号:JD2017025
【分类号】：F592.7

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