新时期国内旅游的抗周期性及动力机制分析
发布时间：2018-08-02 07:48
【摘要】：我国经济迅速发展,快速增长的国民经济推动居民的收入水平不断提高,居民的消费结构转变升级,闲暇时间的增多,国内旅游受惠于这些有利因素快速发展。不同于传统观念将旅游消费作为非必须消费,认为其具有脆弱性,本文在进行相关概念辨析、界定的基础上,发现旅游的脆弱性主要表现在对危机事件的敏感性,国内旅游具有抗周期性。界定了新时期的时间范围是从1994年到2012年。通过对国内旅游新特性的研究,本文得到以下结论： (1)结合我国国内旅游的发展周期与经济的发展周期波动,对国内旅游的抗周期性进行定义分析。国内旅游的抗周期性指的是,国内旅游产业的发展和居民的国内旅游需求,受到短期经济周期波动的影响较小,对经济的周期波动呈现出一定的抗跌性,对危机事件呈现后危机反弹。国内旅游的抗周期性是新时期内国内旅游发展中明显呈现出的新特性,在扩大内需、拉动经济增长中发挥了重要作用。 (2)针对我国社会显著的二元结构,从国内旅游整体、城镇居民和农村居民国内旅游分别研究其在新时期呈现出的抗周期性,其具体表现形式为：发展周期长、周期内波动幅度小、周期内的平均增长率高,国内经济持续高速增长的阶段内,GDP和国内旅游都能在高速率增长中平稳发展,但国内旅游的增长率高于GDP的增长率,国内旅游的发展能够正向拉动经济发展；抗经济周期,发生危机事件时,冲击我国经济,使GDP增长出现严重下滑,国内经济衰退,国内旅游会出现逆向上升的趋势,或者增长率下降幅度小于GDP增长率的下降幅度,国内旅游对短期经济周期呈现出一定的抗跌性；抗危机周期,当遭遇重大危机事件之后,国内旅游迅速恢复形成后危机反弹,危机之后的反弹能力强,表现为国内旅游增长的反弹速度快于GDP增长的恢复速度,,形成了对危机年份旅游损失的补偿式发展,呈“V”字型,表现出强劲的增长惯性和恢复能力,反弹速度高于GDP的恢复速度。 (3)通过分析新时期国内旅游发展阶段内居民的收入—国内旅游价格的变化发现：居民收入增长快,旅游价格增长慢,国内旅游快速发展；居民收入增长慢,旅游价格增长快,国内旅游发展缓慢。通过构建双对数需求函数模型,比较国内旅游的需求价格弹性和需求收入弹性,得到国内旅游的需求收入弹性大,需求价格弹性小,说明我国国内旅游的需求刚性,具有一定的增长惯性。 (4)国内旅游需求具有刚性,其发展具有一定的增长惯性,形成了抗周期性形成的内在动力机制。人们对于国内旅游的选择对于价格的考虑较小,收入成为主要的影响因素,当居民收入增长速度快,国内旅游价格增长速度慢时,居民的国内旅游需求旺盛,国内旅游会快速增长；而当居民收入增长速度慢,国内旅游价格增长速度快时,居民的国内旅游需求无法得到完全满足,国内旅游发展滞缓。因此当经济在高速稳定发展周期内,居民收入高速增长增加,国内旅游持续高速增长；国内旅游成为刚性需求,具有一定的增长惯性。面对突发性事件,经济周期出现波动时,经济下滑,国内旅游依靠其增长惯性,能够对减小其受干扰程度,国内旅游增长率的下降幅度小于经济增长速率的下降幅度,或出现出一定的逆向上升趋势,呈现出抗跌性。在遭遇重大危机事件之后,由于国内旅游的需求刚性,人们会暂时取消或者延缓出行计划,积攒能量,当事件结束后会继续原来的旅游活动,使国内旅游能够迅速恢复并形成后危机反弹。 本文研究了新时期内国内旅游出现的抗周期性,对其进行了定义,分析其表现形式,研究其形成的动力机制。同时证明了国内旅游具有需求刚性,存在一定的增长惯性。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy, the rapid growth of the national economy has promoted the income level of the residents, the transformation and upgrading of the consumption structure of the residents, the increase of leisure time, and the rapid development of the domestic tourism. On the basis of related concept discrimination and definition, it is found that the vulnerability of tourism is mainly manifested in sensitivity to crisis events and domestic tourism is cyclical. The time range of the new period is from 1994 to 2012. Through the study of the new characteristics of domestic tourism, the following conclusions are obtained.
(1) according to the development cycle of domestic tourism and the fluctuation of economic development cycle, the anti periodicity of domestic tourism is defined and analyzed. The anti periodicity of domestic tourism refers to the development of the domestic tourism industry and the domestic tourism demand of the residents, which are less influenced by the short-term economic cycle wave, and show the periodic fluctuation of the economy. In the new period, the anti cyclical nature of domestic tourism is a new characteristic in the development of domestic tourism, which plays an important role in expanding domestic demand and stimulating economic growth.
(2) in view of the significant two yuan structure in our country, from the whole domestic tourism, the urban residents and the domestic tourism of the rural residents respectively study its anti cyclical characteristics in the new period. The specific forms are: the long period of development, the small fluctuation within the cycle, the high rate of flat growth within the cycle, and the continuous and rapid growth of domestic economy, G DP and domestic tourism can develop steadily in high rate growth, but the growth rate of domestic tourism is higher than the growth rate of GDP. The development of domestic tourism can stimulate the economic development. In the case of the anti economic cycle and crisis events, the impact of the economy on our country makes the growth of GDP serious down, the domestic economy decline and the domestic tourism will appear reverse. The trend of rising, or the decline of growth rate is less than the decrease of GDP growth rate, the domestic tourism shows a certain resistance to the short term economic cycle, the anti crisis cycle, the rapid recovery of domestic tourism after the crisis, the rebound of the crisis after the crisis, the strong rebound ability after the crisis, and the reflection of the growth of domestic tourism. The rebound speed is faster than the GDP growth rate, which forms a compensatory development for the loss of the crisis year, showing a "V" type, showing strong growth inertia and recovery ability, and the rebound speed is higher than the recovery rate of GDP.
(3) by analyzing the changes of residents' income and domestic tourism prices in the stage of domestic tourism development in the new period, it is found that the growth of residents' income, the slow growth of tourism prices, the rapid development of domestic tourism, the slow growth of residents' income, the rapid growth of tourism prices, and the slow development of domestic tourism. By constructing a dual logarithmic demand function model, the domestic tourism is comparatively slow. Tourism demand price elasticity and demand elasticity of demand income elasticity, the domestic tourism demand income elasticity, demand price elasticity is small, indicating that China's domestic tourism demand is rigid, with a certain growth inertia.
(4) the domestic tourism demand is rigid, its development has a certain growth inertia and has formed the internal dynamic mechanism of anti cyclical formation. The choice of domestic tourism is less considered for the price, and the income becomes the main influence factor. When the growth rate of the residents' income is fast, the domestic tourism price is slow, the resident's domestic With the high demand for tourism and the rapid growth of domestic tourism, the domestic tourism demand can not be fully satisfied and the domestic tourism development is slow when the growth rate of residents' income is slow and the domestic tourism price is growing fast, so the domestic tourism development is slow. Therefore, when the economy is in the high speed and stable development cycle, the high speed increase of residents' income and the continuous high speed of domestic tourism Growth; domestic tourism is a rigid demand, with a certain growth inertia. In the face of sudden events, when the economic cycle fluctuates, the economy falls, the domestic tourism depends on its growth inertia and can reduce the degree of its interference. The decline in the growth rate of domestic tourism is less than the decline in economic growth rate, or a certain inverse. After the major crisis, due to the rigid domestic tourism demand, people will temporarily cancel or postpone the trip plan, accumulate energy, and continue the original tourism activities after the end of the event, so that domestic tourism can quickly recover and form a post crisis rebound.
This paper studies the anti periodicity of domestic tourism in the new period, defines it, analyzes its form of expression, and studies the dynamic mechanism of its formation. It also proves that domestic tourism has a rigid demand and a certain growth inertia.
【学位授予单位】：陕西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F592
本文编号：2158702
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy, the rapid growth of the national economy has promoted the income level of the residents, the transformation and upgrading of the consumption structure of the residents, the increase of leisure time, and the rapid development of the domestic tourism. On the basis of related concept discrimination and definition, it is found that the vulnerability of tourism is mainly manifested in sensitivity to crisis events and domestic tourism is cyclical. The time range of the new period is from 1994 to 2012. Through the study of the new characteristics of domestic tourism, the following conclusions are obtained.
(1) according to the development cycle of domestic tourism and the fluctuation of economic development cycle, the anti periodicity of domestic tourism is defined and analyzed. The anti periodicity of domestic tourism refers to the development of the domestic tourism industry and the domestic tourism demand of the residents, which are less influenced by the short-term economic cycle wave, and show the periodic fluctuation of the economy. In the new period, the anti cyclical nature of domestic tourism is a new characteristic in the development of domestic tourism, which plays an important role in expanding domestic demand and stimulating economic growth.
(2) in view of the significant two yuan structure in our country, from the whole domestic tourism, the urban residents and the domestic tourism of the rural residents respectively study its anti cyclical characteristics in the new period. The specific forms are: the long period of development, the small fluctuation within the cycle, the high rate of flat growth within the cycle, and the continuous and rapid growth of domestic economy, G DP and domestic tourism can develop steadily in high rate growth, but the growth rate of domestic tourism is higher than the growth rate of GDP. The development of domestic tourism can stimulate the economic development. In the case of the anti economic cycle and crisis events, the impact of the economy on our country makes the growth of GDP serious down, the domestic economy decline and the domestic tourism will appear reverse. The trend of rising, or the decline of growth rate is less than the decrease of GDP growth rate, the domestic tourism shows a certain resistance to the short term economic cycle, the anti crisis cycle, the rapid recovery of domestic tourism after the crisis, the rebound of the crisis after the crisis, the strong rebound ability after the crisis, and the reflection of the growth of domestic tourism. The rebound speed is faster than the GDP growth rate, which forms a compensatory development for the loss of the crisis year, showing a "V" type, showing strong growth inertia and recovery ability, and the rebound speed is higher than the recovery rate of GDP.
(3) by analyzing the changes of residents' income and domestic tourism prices in the stage of domestic tourism development in the new period, it is found that the growth of residents' income, the slow growth of tourism prices, the rapid development of domestic tourism, the slow growth of residents' income, the rapid growth of tourism prices, and the slow development of domestic tourism. By constructing a dual logarithmic demand function model, the domestic tourism is comparatively slow. Tourism demand price elasticity and demand elasticity of demand income elasticity, the domestic tourism demand income elasticity, demand price elasticity is small, indicating that China's domestic tourism demand is rigid, with a certain growth inertia.
(4) the domestic tourism demand is rigid, its development has a certain growth inertia and has formed the internal dynamic mechanism of anti cyclical formation. The choice of domestic tourism is less considered for the price, and the income becomes the main influence factor. When the growth rate of the residents' income is fast, the domestic tourism price is slow, the resident's domestic With the high demand for tourism and the rapid growth of domestic tourism, the domestic tourism demand can not be fully satisfied and the domestic tourism development is slow when the growth rate of residents' income is slow and the domestic tourism price is growing fast, so the domestic tourism development is slow. Therefore, when the economy is in the high speed and stable development cycle, the high speed increase of residents' income and the continuous high speed of domestic tourism Growth; domestic tourism is a rigid demand, with a certain growth inertia. In the face of sudden events, when the economic cycle fluctuates, the economy falls, the domestic tourism depends on its growth inertia and can reduce the degree of its interference. The decline in the growth rate of domestic tourism is less than the decline in economic growth rate, or a certain inverse. After the major crisis, due to the rigid domestic tourism demand, people will temporarily cancel or postpone the trip plan, accumulate energy, and continue the original tourism activities after the end of the event, so that domestic tourism can quickly recover and form a post crisis rebound.
This paper studies the anti periodicity of domestic tourism in the new period, defines it, analyzes its form of expression, and studies the dynamic mechanism of its formation. It also proves that domestic tourism has a rigid demand and a certain growth inertia.
【学位授予单位】：陕西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F592
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前10条
1 瞿华;夏杰长;;我国旅游业发展与经济增长关系的实证研究——基于1985-2009年数据[J];财贸经济;2011年08期
2 翁钢民;徐晓娜;尚雪梅;;我国城市居民国内旅游需求影响因素分析[J];城市问题;2007年04期
3 徐航涛;;我国城市住房刚性需求影响因素实证分析——以北京、上海、天津、重庆为例[J];当代经济;2011年15期
4 庞丽;王铮;刘清春;;我国入境旅游和经济增长关系分析[J];地域研究与开发;2006年03期
5 殷剑峰;;中国经济周期研究:1954￣2004[J];管理世界;2006年03期
6 王仲明;发达国家与发展中国家旅游经济脆弱性比较研究[J];福建论坛(经济社会版);1989年11期
7 曲琳;;抗周期的现代农业[J];创业邦;2010年01期
8 黄秀娟;我国居民国内旅游消费与居民收入关系的实证分析[J];河北经贸大学学报;2004年05期
9 孙春华;浅谈旅游业的脆弱性及其规避途径[J];北京第二外国语学院学报;2003年05期
10 梁留科,曹新向;全面建设小康社会背景下的我国农民旅游市场开发研究[J];经济地理;2005年02期
相关博士学位论文 前1条
1 徐勇;中国国内旅游业发展及其与经济增长关系的计量分析[D];东北财经大学;2012年
，本文编号：2158702
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/guanlilunwen/lvyoujiudianguanlilunwen/2158702.html
