20年来新疆入境旅游经济增长周期与趋势预测

发布时间：2018-10-10 07:59

【摘要】：入境旅游是旅游业"三大市场"中开发最早、发展最快的市场,入境旅游人数和旅游外汇收入不仅是衡量一个国家或地区经济实力和区域开放程度的指标,也是研究入境旅游发展态势的重要指数。旅游业作为一个经济产业,其发展过程存在周期性的波动,构建一元线性回归模型,运用PASW Statistics18软件对1993~2012年统计数据进行形态学分析和发展趋势预测,并分析影响新疆入境旅游的主要因素。结果表明:1)入境旅游人数与旅游外汇收入线性关系显著且波动周期基本一致,数据拟合为5个短周期,主要指标呈现增长趋势明显,但受复杂外在环境影响,一度出现超常波动增长的状况;2)新疆入境旅游持续稳定的增长是未来发展的基本趋势,预计在2012~2016年,新疆的入境旅游将会进入一个新的发展周期;3)新疆入境旅游市场受到政治、经济、社会、环境等多因素影响和制约,未来发展存在诸多不确定性。
[Abstract]:Inbound tourism is the earliest and fastest developed market in the "three major markets" of tourism industry. The number of inbound tourists and foreign exchange earnings from tourism are not only indicators of a country's or a region's economic strength and the degree of regional opening up. It is also an important index to study the development of inbound tourism. Tourism, as an economic industry, has periodic fluctuation in its development process. This paper constructs a linear regression model and uses PASW Statistics18 software to analyze the statistical data from 1993 to 2012 and forecast the trend of development. And analyzes the main factors affecting Xinjiang inbound tourism. The results show that the linear relationship between inbound tourist population and tourism foreign exchange earnings is significant and the fluctuation period is basically consistent. The data fit for 5 short periods. The main indicators show an obvious growth trend, but are affected by complex external environment. (2) the sustained and stable growth of Xinjiang's inbound tourism is the basic trend of its future development. It is expected that Xinjiang's inbound tourism will enter a new development cycle from 2012 to 2016. Economic, social, environmental and other factors affect and restrict the future development of a lot of uncertainty.
【作者单位】：塔里木大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家科技支撑计划课题:环塔里木文化旅游综合服务系统及应用(2013GX09E04)资助
【分类号】：F592.7

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