中国旅游投资增长周期波动性及其溢出效应

发布时间：2018-11-01 21:22

【摘要】：采用1999—2016年中国旅游投资的年度数据,利用H-P、B-P滤波法等,分析了中国旅游投资增长周期波动性的特征以及它对旅游经济增长周期波动性的溢出效应。结果表明:中国旅游投资增长呈显著的周期性,且其周期多为古典型周期,平均持续时间为3~4年,周期长度不仅趋短且波动性趋稳;从行业层面看,星级酒店投资增长周期为增长型周期和古典型周期的混合类,周期短且波动幅度较为稳定,星级酒店投资增长有一定的反周期能力;景区投资增长周期多为古典型周期,周期的波动幅度较大;旅行社投资增长周期全是古典型周期,初期增长的周期波动性较大,而后期增长的周期波动性则较平缓,逆周期能力有所增强;旅游投资增长对旅游经济增长周期波动性具有显著的稳定性效应,而旅游投资增长周期波动性则对之无显著的溢出效应;三大行业的投资增长周期波动性既对旅游经济增长无稳定效应,也对旅游经济增长周期波动性不具有显著的稳定效应;旅游投资增长风险与旅游经济增长风险之间存在一定的分离性。
[Abstract]:Based on the annual data of China's tourism investment from 1999 to 2016, the characteristics of the volatility of Chinese tourism investment growth cycle and its spillover effect on the fluctuation of tourism economic growth cycle are analyzed by H-Pfier-P filtering method. The results show that the growth of tourism investment in China has a significant periodicity, and most of the periods are ancient typical cycles, the average duration is 3 ~ 4 years, and the cycle length is not only shorter but also more stable. From the industry level, the investment growth cycle of star hotel is a mixed type of growth cycle and ancient typical cycle, the period is short and the fluctuation range is relatively stable, and the investment growth of star hotel has a certain counter-cyclical ability. The investment growth cycle of scenic spot is mostly ancient typical cycle, the fluctuation range of cycle is large; Travel agency investment growth cycle is all ancient typical cycle, the initial growth cycle volatility is large, while the later growth cycle volatility is relatively gentle, counter-cyclical capacity has been enhanced; The growth of tourism investment has a significant stability effect on the fluctuation of tourism economic growth cycle, while the volatility of tourism investment growth cycle has no significant spillover effect. The fluctuation of the investment growth cycle of the three major industries has no stable effect on the growth of tourism economy, but also has no significant stability effect on the fluctuation of the growth cycle of tourism economy. There is a certain separation between tourism investment growth risk and tourism economic growth risk.
【作者单位】：西安科技大学管理学院;陕西师范大学地理科学与旅游学院;运城学院经济管理系;
【基金】：中国博士后科学基金项目“新时期中国旅游投资需求与投资格局转型研究”(2015M572522)
【分类号】：F592

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