泰国国际旅游业影响因素实证研究

发布时间：2021-01-15 05:10

　　旅游业是服务业国际贸易的一个主要类别,经历了强劲增长、持续扩张和变,成为世界上最突出和发展最快的经济产业之一。全世界对旅行的需求不断增加,为国家经济和为世界各国创造就业机会做出了重大贡献。在泰国,旅游业在对国家经济的重要性方面与制造业相媲美,并已成为泰国经济增长的新动力。即使面对全球形势的诸多变化、意外事件的发生以及泰国自身的国内情况,这种增长仍在继续。近年来,泰国充满活力的旅游业在经济中发挥着越来越重要的作用,推动了许多与旅游相关的业务,并帮助弥补了其他行业的疲弱增长。最近,泰国旅游业的增长尤其受中国游客数量成倍增长的驱动;然而,泰国也面临着来自邻国的更激烈的竞争。此外,全球旅游格局往往会因各国的经济、旅游偏好、主要趋势和法规以及国际稳定而频繁变化。因此,深入了解泰国旅游业的主要决定因素,对于维持泰国旅游业的增长和增强泰国旅游业的竞争力至关重要。本文试图从经济角度,结合非经济因素和其他外部因素,探讨支撑国际泰国出境旅游的因素。为了实现本文之目的,本文采用定性和定量分析相结合的方法,并结合使用计量经济学的估计方法。本文是由八个章节组成的,前两章是后续章节的背景,概述了泰国的旅游业结构和... 

【文章来源】：对外经济贸易大学北京市 211工程院校 教育部直属院校

【文章页数】：206 页

【学位级别】：博士

【文章目录】：
摘要
Abstract
List of Acronyms and Abbreviations
Chapter 1:Introduction
    1.1 Background
    1.2 Significance and Originalities of the Study
        1.2.1 Significance of Study
        1.2.2 Originalities of the Study
    1.3 Objectives of the Study
        1.3.1 General Objective
        1.3.2 Specific Objective
    1.4 Research Questions
    1.5 Scopes of Study
    1.6 Limitations and Directions for Further Studies
Chapter 2:Literature Review
    2.1 International Tourism Demand Literature
    2.2 Traditional Methodology of Tourism Demand Modelling
    2.3 Recent Methodological Developments in Tourism Demand Modelling
        2.3.1 Econometric Models
        2.3.2 The Application of Consumer Demand Theory in Modelling Tourism Demand
        2.3.3 Single Equation Approach in International Tourism Demand Modelling
        2.3.4 System-of-Equations Approach
        2.3.5 Panel Data Model
    2.4 A Theoretical Framework for Tourism Demand
        2.4.1 Economic Demand Theory
        2.4.2 International Trade Theory
        2.4.3 Theoretical Framework of the Gravity Model
    2.5 Research Gaps
Chapter 3:Overview Thailand’s Tourism Industry and Development
    3.1 Overview of Thailand Tourism
        3.1.1 International Tourism in Thailand
    3.2 The Important of Tourism in Thailand
        3.2.1 The Important of Domestic Tourism in Thailand
        3.2.2 The Important of International Tourism in Thailand
    3.3 History of tourism development and tourism policy in Thailand
    3.4 Analysis of Comparative Advantage of Thai Tourism Compared to Other Countries
    3.5 SWOT Analysis of Tourism in Thailand
        3.5.1 Strengths
        3.5.2 Opportunities
        3.5.3 Weaknesses
        3.5.4 Threats
Chapter 4:Overview of Tourism Characteristics and Travel Patterns in Thailand
    4.1.Overview of International Tourism in Thailand
        4.1.1 Number of International Tourists
        4.1.2 International Tourism Receipts
        4.1.3 Length of Stay
        4.1.4 Seasonal Distribution of International Tourist Arrivals in Thailand
        4.1.5 Spatial Distribution of International Tourist Arrivals in Thailand
    4.2 The Dynamism of the Chinese Outbound Tourism Market
        4.2.1 The Evolution of Chinese Outbound Market
        4.2.2 Chinese Arrivals and Receipts in Thailand
        4.2.3 Seasonal Distribution of Chinese Arrivals in Thailand
        4.2.4 Outbound Chinese Tourism Expenditure（Consumption）
Chapter 5:Overview the Determinants of International Tourism Industry
    5.1 Measurement of Demand for Tourism
        5.1.1 Tourist Arrivals
        5.1.2 Tourist Expenditure
        5.1.3 Length of Stay
    5.2 Determinants of International Tourism Demand（Explanatory Variables）
        5.2.1 Income
        5.2.2 Price
        5.2.3 Prices of Substitute（Alternative）Destinations
        5.2.4 Exchange Rate
        5.2.5 Lagged Dependent Variable
        5.2.6 International Trade
        5.2.7 Qualitative Effects
    5.3 Demand Elasticity
        5.3.1 Income Elasticities/ Income Effect
        5.3.2 Price Elasticities
Chapter 6:Research Methodology and Method
    6.1 Model Construction
    6.2 Functional Forms
    6.3 Model Selection
    6.4 Econometric Methods
    6.5 Estimation Procedure
    6.6 Data Sources
    6.7 Variable Selection
        6.7.1 Dependent Variables
        6.7.2 Explanatory Variables
    6.8 Diagnostic Checking
        6.8.1 Multicollinearity Test
        6.8.2 Model Selection（Fixed-Effects or Random-Effects Model）
        6.8.3 Testing for Heteroskedasticity
        6.8.4.Testing for Serial Correlation
        6.8.5 Testing Over-Identifying Restrictions in GMM
Chapter 7:Empirical Analysis and Results
    7.1 Diagnostic Test Results
        7.1.1 Multicollinearity Test
        7.1.2 Hausman Test
        7.1.3 Testing for Heteroskedasticity
        7.1.4 Testing for Serial Correlation
        7.1.5 Testing Over-Identifying Restrictions in GMM
    7.2 Empirical Results
Chapter 8:Conclusion and Recommendations
    8.1 Research Conclusions
    8.2 Recommendations for the Chinese Market
    8.3 Recommendations for Thailand
References
Appendix A
Appendix B
Acknowledgement
Author’s Curriculum Vitae



本文编号：2978291