我国通信行业上市公司财务危机预警研究

发布时间：2018-04-11 00:04

本文选题：通信行业 + 上市公司　；参考：《北京邮电大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：电信业作为国家的基础性、先导性产业,具有较大的社会倍增效益,其发展速度和效益对整个经济发展具有辐射作用,但同时通信行业也是一个高投入高风险的行业,如果电信企业一旦发生财务危机,会给投资者以及相关利益者带来巨大的经济损失,更重要的是作为国家支柱产业,会严重影响国民经济的发展,甚至引发金融危机。建立财务预警系统对企业的经营状况进行跟踪和监控,及早的发现财务恶化的信号,并采取相应措施来避免或减少损失,显得尤其重要。本文以中国通信行业上市公司为研究对象,以上市公司是否因财务状况异常而被特殊处理作为界定财务危机的依据,在通信行业上市公司中选取了3家ST公司和16家非ST公司作为估计样本,确定研究年度为上市公司被特殊处理前3年。在“四能力”财务指标体系的基础上,借鉴了国内外学者的研究成果,从公司的营运能力、盈利能力、偿债能力、发展能力和现金流量能力五个方面初步确定了21个指标,然后通过KMD检验、相关分析进行筛选,最终确定了6个指标采用Logistic回归建立财务危机预警的模型,最后对研究的结果进行分析表明,该模型的正确率达到79%。通过本研究构建了适合通信行业上市公司的财务危机预警模型,比较准确的预测了企业的财务危机。希望能够通过该模型,帮助企业及时发现潜在的财务风险,以便于企业及时作出判断并采取措施预防危机的发生,从而保护投资者和债权人的利益、便于政府管理部门监控电信企业经营质量,保证电信企业的健康稳定发展。
[Abstract]:As the foundation and leading industry of our country, telecom industry has great social multiplier benefit. Its development speed and benefit have radiation effect to the whole economic development, but at the same time, the telecommunication industry is also a high investment and high risk industry.Once the financial crisis occurs, telecom enterprises will bring huge economic losses to investors and related stakeholders, more importantly, as a pillar industry of the state, will seriously affect the development of the national economy, and even lead to financial crisis.It is very important to establish financial early warning system to track and monitor the business situation, to detect the signal of financial deterioration as early as possible, and to take corresponding measures to avoid or reduce losses.In this paper, the listed companies in the communications industry in China are taken as the research object, and whether the listed companies are specially dealt with because of the abnormal financial situation as the basis for defining the financial crisis,Three St companies and 16 non-St companies are selected as the estimated samples in the communications industry, and it is determined that the research year is three years before the special treatment of listed companies.On the basis of the financial index system of "four abilities" and referring to the research results of domestic and foreign scholars, 21 indexes were preliminarily determined from five aspects of the company's operating ability, profitability, solvency, development capacity and cash flow capacity.Then through KMD test and correlation analysis, six indexes are determined to establish the financial crisis warning model by Logistic regression. Finally, the results of the research show that the correct rate of the model is 79%.Through this study, a financial crisis warning model suitable for the listed companies in the communication industry is constructed, and the financial crisis of the enterprises is predicted more accurately.It is hoped that the model can help enterprises discover potential financial risks in a timely manner so as to facilitate enterprises to make timely judgments and take measures to prevent the occurrence of crises, thereby protecting the interests of investors and creditors.To facilitate government management to monitor the quality of telecommunications enterprises, to ensure the healthy and stable development of telecommunications enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：北京邮电大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F626.116;F224

【参考文献】