信息化推动中国产业结构转型升级研究

发布时间：2018-06-26 19:23

本文选题：信息化 + 产业结构转型升级　；参考：《北京邮电大学》2017年博士论文

【摘要】：信息化作为现代经济社会发展的动力,已经深刻地影响着我国经济社会发展。时下,能否抓住信息化发展带来的历史性机遇,乘势加快推进我国产业结构转型升级,这是事关我国走向世界经济强国的关键问题。本文以信息化推动产业结构转型升级为主线,理论联系实际,以深入分析信息化对产业结构转型升级的作用机理为切入点,着力于对信息化与产业结构转型升级之间的动态相互关系和信息化对产业结构转型升级的推动作用进行了实证分析。进而围绕如何加快信息化推动我国产业结构转型升级提出了相关对策建议。本文主要研究内容体现在以下五个方面。1.分析了信息化对产业结构转型升级的影响机理。本文从产业改造和产业融合两个方面来分析信息化对产业转型升级的作用机理:其一,基于创新理论视角分析信息化以新技术、新模式和新市场实现传统产业的改造。信息化以新技术提升产业生产效率,以新模式激发产业内在活力,和以新生态系统提升产业创新能力,实现传统产业有序健康发展;其二,基于产业融合理论视角分析信息化促进产业融合。信息化以新引擎提升产业融合效率、以新平台缩短产业融合周期、以新业态丰富产业发展内容,实现传统产业更高效的融合。信息化通过产业改造和产业融合促进产业结构向合理化、高度化、升级化和转型化方向发展。2.测度了我国信息化发展水平和产业结构转型升级程度。测度研究分为两个部分:其一,从信息化是一个持续渐进的动态过程这一内涵出发,在前人关于信息化测度研究的基础上,充分考虑国情因素,提出从不同侧面综合反映信息化水平的4大要素(基础设施、信息化应用水平、信息产业、信息化发展环境),筛选13项指标,构建了信息化测评的动态多指标评价体系。其二,从产业结构转型升级是一个“转型”和“升级”共同发生的演变过程这一内涵出发,充分考虑产业结构转型升级过程中产业结构发生的变化,从产业结构合理化、产业结构高度化、产业结构升级化和产业结构转型化4个维度构建产业结构转型升级的评价指标体系。3.构建了面板向量自回归模型(PVAR)研究信息化与产业结构转型升级之间的动态关系。国内现有关于信息化与产业结构转型升级之间关系的实证研究绝大多数是基于静态面板数据模型方法。本文另辟蹊径,利用2003～2014年我国30个省市信息化水平与产业结构转型升级程度数据①,构建面板向量自回归模型,并通过动态面板GMM估计、脉冲响应函数(IRF)以及预测误差的方差分解(FEVD),检验二者相互对对方冲击情况。研究结果显示:(1)信息化对产业结构转型升级具有持续显著的动态促进作用;(2)信息化与产业结构转型升级的相互拉动作用是非对等的,即产业结构转型升级对信息化也有持续显著的动态促进作用,但信息化对产业结构转型升级的推动作用要强于产业结构转型升级对信息化的推动作用;(3)信息化对产业结构转型升级的推动存在时滞效应,信息化的推动作用需要5年时间才能达到峰值,随后作用强度开始持续衰减。4.引入空间计量模型研究信息化对产业结构转型升级的推动作用。目前国内有关信息化对产业结构升级影响的实证研究相对较少,且均忽略空间因素对于信息化和产业结构的影响。从我国的国情来看,信息化发展和产业结构转型升级都会受到区域经济与社会发展的影响,因此本文应用Morans'I指数、Moran散点图、LISA集聚图、空间计量模型等方法考察信息化与产业结构转型升级的空间相依性、以及信息化对产业结构转型升级的空间溢出效应。同时,根据学者们关于产业结构转型升级影响因素的相关研究,本文将科研水平、金融化水平、城镇化水平、外贸水平等因素作为控制变量纳入空间计量模型。研究结果显示:(1)信息化和产业结构升级皆存在显著的空间依赖性,二者呈现出区域聚集特征;(2)信息化对本地区及相邻地区产业结构转型升级均有具有显著的正向空间冲击效应;(3)科研水平、金融化水平、城镇化水平对区域产业结构升级具有显著正向效应,而外贸水平对产业结构转型升级没有显著影响。5.最后,基于对当前我国信息化推动产业结构转型升级的现状分析基础上,并充分借鉴发达国家信息化推动产业结构转型升级的相关经验,从强化基础设施建设、完善信息技术自主创新体系、产业创新生态体系、新型市场治理体系等方面提出相关对策建议。
[Abstract]:As the motive force of modern economic and social development, information has profound influence on the economic and social development of our country. At present, it is crucial for China to accelerate the transformation and upgrading of China's industrial structure by taking advantage of the historic opportunity brought by the development of information technology and promoting the transformation and upgrading of China's industrial structure. The structure transformation and upgrading are the main line, the theory is connected with the reality, and the mechanism of the informationization to the industrial structure transformation and upgrading is analyzed in depth. The dynamic relationship between information and industrial structure transformation and upgrading and the action of information on industrial structure transformation and upgrading are analyzed. And then how to speed up the acceleration of the industrial structure transformation and upgrading is carried out. Information to promote the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure in China put forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions. The main content of this paper is reflected in the following five aspects:.1. analysis of the mechanism of the impact of information on industrial structure transformation and upgrading. This paper analyzes the mechanism of the role of information on industrial transformation and upgrading from two aspects of industrial transformation and industrial integration: one, Based on the perspective of innovation theory, information technology is analyzed with new technology, new model and new market to realize the transformation of traditional industry. Information technology promotes industrial production efficiency with new technology, stimulates the intrinsic vitality of industry with new model, and improves industrial innovation ability with new ecosystem, and realizes the orderly and healthy development of traditional industry. Secondly, based on the theory of industrial integration Information technology promotes industrial integration. Information technology improves the efficiency of industrial integration with a new engine, shortens the industry integration cycle with a new platform, enriches the content of industrial development, and realizes a more efficient integration of traditional industries. Informatization promotes the rationalization, elevation, upgrading and transformation of the production structure through industrial transformation and industrial integration. The development level of informatization and the degree of transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure in China are measured by.2.. The research is divided into two parts: first, from the connotation of information is a continuous and progressive dynamic process, on the basis of the previous research on information measurement, it takes into account the national conditions, and puts forward the comprehensive reaction from different sides. The 4 major elements of information level (infrastructure, information application level, information industry, information development environment) and 13 indexes are screened and the dynamic multi index evaluation system of information evaluation is constructed. Secondly, the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure is a connotations of "transformation" and "upgrading". Considering the changes of industrial structure during the process of industrial structure transformation and upgrading, the evaluation index system of industrial structure transformation and upgrading is constructed from 4 dimensions: industrial structure rationalization, industrial structure height, industrial structure upgrading and industrial structure transformation. The.3. model of panel vector autoregressive model (PVAR) is constructed to study information and industrial structure transformation. Most of the empirical research on the relationship between information and industrial structure transformation and upgrading in China is based on the static panel data model method. In this paper, a new way is made to build panel vector from the data of the information level of 30 provinces and cities and the upgrading degree of industrial structure in 2003~2014 years in China. Regression model, and through dynamic panel GMM estimation, impulse response function (IRF) and variance decomposition (FEVD) of prediction error (FEVD), test the impact of each other on each other. The results show that: (1) information on industrial structure transformation and upgrading has a continuous and significant dynamic promotion effect; (2) the mutual pull of information and industrial structure transformation and upgrading. The role is non reciprocal, that is, the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure has a sustained and dynamic promotion effect on information technology, but the promotion of information on industrial structure transformation and upgrading is stronger than the promotion of industrial structure transformation and upgrading to information. (3) the promotion of information on industrial structure transformation and upgrading is time-delay effect, and information technology is pushed forward. The dynamic action takes 5 years to reach the peak value. Then the action intensity begins to continue to attenuate.4. and introduce the spatial econometric model to study the role of information on industrial structure transformation and upgrading. At present, there are relatively few empirical studies on the impact of information on industrial structure upgrading in China, and all of them ignore the spatial factors for information and industry. From the national conditions of our country, information development and industrial structure transformation and upgrading will be affected by regional economic and social development. Therefore, this paper uses Morans'I index, Moran scatter plot, LISA cluster map, spatial measurement model to investigate the spatial dependence of information and industrial structure transformation and upgrading, and information technology The spatial spillover effect of industrial structure transformation and upgrading. At the same time, according to the relevant research on the influencing factors of industrial structure transformation and upgrading, the research level, the level of finance, the level of urbanization, the level of foreign trade and other factors are taken as the control variables into the spatial econometric model. The results show that: (1) information and industrial structure upgrading are all There is a significant spatial dependence, the two shows the characteristics of regional aggregation; (2) information has significant positive spatial impact on the industrial structure transformation and upgrading in the region and adjacent areas; (3) the level of scientific research, the level of Finance and the level of urbanization have significant positive effects on the upgrading of the regional industrial structure, and the level of foreign trade is to the industry. The structural transformation and upgrading have no significant impact on the.5. last. Based on the analysis of the current situation of China's informatization promoting industrial structure transformation and upgrading, and fully drawing lessons from the related experience of the industrial structure transformation and upgrading of the developed countries, we should strengthen the infrastructure construction, improve the independent innovation system of the information technology and the industrial innovation ecosystem. Department, new market governance system and other related countermeasures and suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：北京邮电大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F121.3;F49

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