参考信息数量对模糊规避的影响

发布时间：2018-02-20 07:34

本文关键词： 模糊模糊规避参考信息比较　出处：《山东师范大学》2011年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：1961年,Ellsberg将当人们同时面对模糊概率和精确概率时,倾向于选择精确概率的现象称为模糊规避。此后数十年中,学者们对这一特殊的决策现象进行了大量的研究。其中,多数学者认为“模糊是由相关信息的缺失所造成的,缺失信息较多,则模糊程度较大,熟悉程度自然相对较低”,并以此作为模糊的操作定义。进入上世纪90年代,Tversky通过对经典的模糊规避实验进行改进,提出了“相对无知”理论作为对模糊规避现象的解释。但是,“相对无知”理论在实验中只是将两种具有不同参考信息数量的选项区分为模糊和精确,没有回答当不同选项具有的参考信息数量之间的差异达到什么水平才会导致模糊规避现象的出现。为了说明参考信息数量对模糊规避的影响,本实验设计出三个实验对其进行研究。实验一中,分别在三种不同的呈现条件下验证了模糊规避现象,考察了中国被试是否在不同呈现方式条件下均会表现出“模糊规避”现象；实验二通过因为参考信息条目数量不同控制参考信息数量,分别在有比较和无比较的条件下直接研究参考信息数量对决策的影响；在实验三通过混合使用对象呈现方式和数字呈现方式对参考信息的数量进行间接的控制,观察了同时使用多种呈现方式对模糊规避的影响。经过采用Z检验、卡方检验和单因素方差分析等多种统计方法对实验所获得的统计数据进行分析后发现： (1)在决策过程中,参考信息的数量决定了模糊规避的出现。当在两个具有不同参考信息数量的选项之间进行选择时,只有两个选项的参考信息差异达到一定程度时才会出现模糊规避；当在多个选项之间进行决策时,参考信息数量最多的一项选择的人数也最多。 (2)呈现方式对模糊规避的出项同样有重要影响。被试对数字呈现方式和对象呈现方式的敏感程度不同,当两个呈现方式同时出现在决策任务中时,被试会将利用对象呈现方式呈现的信息作为决策依据。 (3)呈现方式和参考信息数量对模糊规避的出现都存在影响,但是二者对模糊规避所产生的作用大小不同,参考信息有重要的决定性作用。 (4)参考信息数量与被试在该选项上的信心水平之间没有表现出显著的相关。
[Abstract]:In 1961 Ellsberg referred to the phenomenon that people tend to choose the exact probability as fuzzy circumvention when they face both fuzzy probability and accurate probability. In the following decades, scholars have done a lot of research on this special decision making phenomenon. Most scholars believe that "ambiguity is caused by the absence of relevant information. If there is more missing information, the degree of ambiguity is greater." Familiarity is naturally relatively low, "and as a fuzzy definition of operation. In -10s, Tversky improved on the classic fuzzy circumvention experiment." This paper puts forward the theory of "relative ignorance" as an explanation of the phenomenon of fuzzy circumvention. However, in the experiment, the theory of "relative ignorance" only distinguishes two kinds of options with different quantities of reference information as fuzzy and accurate. No answer is given as to the level at which the difference in the number of references in different options will lead to fuzzy circumvention. In order to illustrate the effect of the quantity of reference information on fuzzy circumvention, three experiments were designed to study it. In experiment 1, the phenomenon of fuzzy circumvention was verified under three different presentation conditions. This paper investigates whether the Chinese subjects will show "fuzzy circumvention" phenomenon under different presentation modes. Experiment 2 controls the reference information quantity by using different reference information items. The influence of reference information quantity on decision making is studied directly under the condition of comparison and no comparison respectively. In experiment 3, indirect control of reference information quantity is carried out through mixed use of object presentation mode and digital presentation mode. The effects of multiple presentation methods on fuzzy circumvention are observed. The statistical data obtained from the experiments are analyzed by using Z test, chi-square test and single factor variance analysis. In the decision-making process, the number of reference information determines the occurrence of fuzzy circumvention. When choosing between two options with different quantities of reference information, Only when the difference of reference information between the two options reaches a certain degree, there will be fuzzy circumvention, and when the decision is made between multiple options, the number of people who have the largest number of reference information is also the most. The sensitivity of the subjects to the digital presentation and the object rendering is different, when the two presentation methods appear in the decision-making task, The participants will use the information presented by the object presentation as the basis for decision-making. (3) the appearance of fuzzy circumvention is influenced by the presentation mode and the quantity of reference information, but they have different effects on fuzzy circumvention, and reference information plays an important and decisive role in the emergence of fuzzy circumvention. (4) there was no significant correlation between the number of reference information and the level of confidence in this option.
【学位授予单位】：山东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：C934

【参考文献】