混沌理论对走出公共危机决策困境的启示
发布时间：2018-12-09 11:17
【摘要】：近些年来,能否及时有效地处理各种公共危机事件,能否在变化莫测的国内、国际局势中快速作出正确的判断和决策,成为我国公共危机决策者需要面对的重大考验。混沌理论与公共危机决策表现出较好的内在契合,即对初始条件的敏感依赖性、混沌中的分形及混沌的时空观,这为公共危机决策者更好地掌握时机、把握危机和寻找转机提供了强有力的理论支持。混沌理论在公共危机决策中的应用具有重要的现实意义,它在危机决策预测模式、危机决策组织及危机决策领导观念三个方面为走出公共危机决策困境拓宽了解决思路。
[Abstract]:In recent years, whether we can deal with all kinds of public crisis events in time and effectively, and whether we can quickly make correct judgment and decision in the unpredictable domestic and international situation, has become a great test that our public crisis decision makers need to face. Chaos theory and public crisis decision-making show a good internal agreement, that is, sensitive dependence on initial conditions, fractal in chaos and chaotic space-time view, which is a better opportunity for public crisis decision makers. Grasp the crisis and look for a turning point to provide a strong theoretical support. The application of chaos theory in public crisis decision making is of great practical significance. It broadens the solution to the dilemma of public crisis decision making in three aspects: crisis decision prediction model, crisis decision organization and crisis decision leadership concept.
【作者单位】： 北京广播电视大学文法部;
【分类号】：C934
本文编号：2369290
[Abstract]:In recent years, whether we can deal with all kinds of public crisis events in time and effectively, and whether we can quickly make correct judgment and decision in the unpredictable domestic and international situation, has become a great test that our public crisis decision makers need to face. Chaos theory and public crisis decision-making show a good internal agreement, that is, sensitive dependence on initial conditions, fractal in chaos and chaotic space-time view, which is a better opportunity for public crisis decision makers. Grasp the crisis and look for a turning point to provide a strong theoretical support. The application of chaos theory in public crisis decision making is of great practical significance. It broadens the solution to the dilemma of public crisis decision making in three aspects: crisis decision prediction model, crisis decision organization and crisis decision leadership concept.
【作者单位】： 北京广播电视大学文法部;
【分类号】：C934
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