不确定环境下闭环供应链鲁棒优化模型的设计与模拟

发布时间：2018-01-12 07:22

本文关键词：不确定环境下闭环供应链鲁棒优化模型的设计与模拟　出处：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着全球经济的快速发展,世界范围内资源日益减少,公众对环境的保护意识逐渐增强,闭环供应链应运而生。闭环供应链与正向供应链相比,网络结构更加复杂,同时涵盖产品回收、维修、再制造、再利用等逆向物流活动。闭环供应链具有高度不确定性的特征,受到来自内部运作和外部环境不确定性因素的扰动,对其正常运作产生直接影响。因此,管理和控制这些不确定性因素对闭环供应链运作的影响具有非常重要的理论和实践意义。本文主要运用鲁棒优化方法对多种不确定环境下闭环供应链的运作问题进行研究,分别构建了供求量不确定下、产品价格不确定下以及供求价格不确定下的鲁棒优化模型,并基于上述模型进行系统模拟,为闭环供应链应对不确定性因素对其运作策略和运作性能的影响提供一种研究方法。在闭环供应链的实际运作过程中,综合考虑供应链协调性、制造商利润最优化以及供应商利润最优化三个目标。主要研究工作如下:第一,研究了消费市场产品需求量和原材料市场供应量均不确定下的闭环供应链运作的鲁棒优化模型。采用已知概率的离散情景来表示供求量的不确定性,运用基于情景分析的鲁棒优化方法来处理供求量不确定性对闭环供应链运作性能产生的影响。并设计数值算例探讨供求量不确定性和废旧产品回收率对制造商利润、供应商利润以及系统总利润的影响,验证所建立模型的鲁棒性。第二,研究了产品价格不确定下以及产品价格和原材料价格均不确定下的闭环供应链运作的鲁棒优化模型。采用连续有界对称区间来表示产品价格和原材料价格的不确定性,运用基于区间分析的鲁棒优化方法来处理供求价格不确定性对供应链运作性能产生的影响。并设计数值算例验证所构建模型的鲁棒性。第三,研究模拟了鲁棒优化模型系统。基于供求量不确定下、产品价格不确定下以及供求价格不确定下的鲁棒优化模型,设计系统关键算法并模拟系统功能。最后运用鲁棒优化模型系统对闭环供应链进行实证研究,为不确定环境下闭环供应链的生产运作决策提供系统支持。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the global economy, the resources in the world are decreasing day by day, and the public's awareness of environmental protection is increasing gradually. The closed-loop supply chain emerges as the times require, and the closed-loop supply chain is compared with the forward supply chain. The network structure is more complex and covers reverse logistics activities such as product recovery, maintenance, remanufacturing, reuse and so on. The closed-loop supply chain is characterized by a high degree of uncertainty. Disturbances from internal and external environmental uncertainties have a direct impact on their normal functioning. Management and control of these uncertainties have very important theoretical and practical significance to the operation of closed-loop supply chain. This paper mainly applies robust optimization method to the operation of closed-loop supply chain in many uncertain environments. To conduct research. The robust optimization models under the uncertainty of supply and demand quantity, product price uncertainty and supply and demand price uncertainty are constructed, and the system simulation is carried out based on the above models. It provides a research method for the closed-loop supply chain to deal with the influence of uncertain factors on its operation strategy and operational performance. In the actual operation process of the closed-loop supply chain, the coordination of supply chain is considered comprehensively. Manufacturer profit optimization and supplier profit optimization three objectives. The main research work is as follows: first. This paper studies the robust optimization model of closed-loop supply chain operation under the uncertainty of product demand and raw material market supply in consumer market. The uncertainty of supply and demand is represented by discrete scenarios with known probability. The robust optimization method based on scenario analysis is used to deal with the effect of supply and demand uncertainty on the operation performance of closed-loop supply chain. A numerical example is designed to discuss the effect of uncertainty of supply and demand and recovery rate of waste products on manufacturer's profit. Run. The influence of the supplier profit and the total profit of the system to verify the robustness of the established model. Second. In this paper, the robust optimization model of closed-loop supply chain operation under uncertain product price and uncertain product and raw material prices is studied. The continuous bounded symmetric interval is used to express the uncertainty of product price and raw material price. Qualitative. The robust optimization method based on interval analysis is used to deal with the effect of supply and demand price uncertainty on the operational performance of supply chain. A numerical example is designed to verify the robustness of the proposed model. Third. The robust optimization model system is studied and simulated. Based on the uncertainty of supply and demand, the product price is uncertain and the supply and demand price is uncertain. The key algorithms of the system are designed and the system functions are simulated. Finally, the robust optimization model system is used to study the closed-loop supply chain empirically, which provides the system support for the production and operation decision of the closed-loop supply chain under uncertain environment.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F274

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