江苏省水产品冷链物流需求预测研究

发布时间：2018-01-21 10:02

本文关键词： 水产品冷链物流需求组合预测模型 IOWHA算子趋势外推法　出处：《昆明理工大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着人们经济生活水平的提高,水产品丰富的营养价值获得消费者的喜爱,并且水产品的安全质量也受到消费者不断关注,冷链物流的出现恰恰能为水产品提供质量保证,受到人们的欢迎。江苏具有非常优越的地理条件,是全国唯数不多靠江靠海的省份,水产品资源特别丰富,冷链物流市场的发展潜力巨大。因此,对水产品冷链物流需求进行预测,对江苏省水产品冷链物流行业的健康发展具有重要的理论价值和实践价值。本文阐述了水产品冷链物流需求的研究背景与意义,并介绍了国内外冷链物流研究的现状,分析了江苏省水产品冷链物流的发展现状和优劣势。用Pearson相关系数对水产品冷链物流需求的影响因素进行分析,选出与水产品冷链物流需求的相关性较大的影响因素,并以此建立预测指标体系。通过对冷链物流需求预测方法的研究,分别选取了多元线性回归理论和灰色预测理论,三次指数平滑法建立预测模型,并通过IOWHA算子组成组合预测模型。并将单一的预测法与基于IOWHA算子组合预测法进行比较,比较的结果发现基于IOWHA算子组合预测模型结果比单一预测的结果更准确。并用趋势外推法对江苏省未来水产品冷链物流需求进行了预测,预测结果显示江苏省水产品冷链物流需求会逐年上升,因此江苏省要采取政策与措施加大对水产品冷链物流的支持力度。
[Abstract]:With the improvement of people's economic standard of living, the rich nutrition value of aquatic products has been loved by consumers, and the safety and quality of aquatic products have been paid more and more attention by consumers. The appearance of cold chain logistics can provide quality assurance for aquatic products, and it is welcomed by people. Jiangsu has very superior geographical conditions, it is the only province in the country that only depends on the river and sea, and the aquatic product resources are especially rich. The development potential of cold-chain logistics market is huge. Therefore, the demand of cold-chain logistics for aquatic products is predicted. It has important theoretical and practical value for the healthy development of aquatic product cold chain logistics industry in Jiangsu Province. This paper expounds the research background and significance of aquatic product cold chain logistics demand. The current situation of cold chain logistics research at home and abroad is also introduced. This paper analyzes the development status and advantages and disadvantages of aquatic product cold chain logistics in Jiangsu Province, and analyzes the influencing factors of aquatic product cold chain logistics demand with Pearson correlation coefficient. This paper selects the influential factors which are related to the logistics demand of the cold chain of aquatic products, and establishes the forecast index system. Through the research on the forecasting method of the demand of the cold chain logistics. The multivariate linear regression theory and grey prediction theory are selected, and the cubic exponential smoothing method is used to establish the prediction model. The combination prediction model is constructed by IOWHA operator, and the single prediction method is compared with the combination prediction method based on IOWHA operator. The results of comparison show that the combined forecasting model based on IOWHA operator is more accurate than the single one. The trend extrapolation method is used to predict the future logistics demand of aquatic products in Jiangsu Province. The forecast results show that the demand of aquatic product cold chain logistics will increase year by year, so Jiangsu Province should adopt policies and measures to strengthen the support of aquatic product cold chain logistics.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F326.6

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