省际物流发展潜力的测度及空间统计分析研究

发布时间：2018-08-03 11:19

【摘要】：物流作为一种社会经济运动的形态,自从人类社会有了商品交换开始就出现了,但人们开始重视这一社会活动还是近几十年的事情。随着我国市场经济的发展,物流的重要性才逐渐被大家所认识。近年来,我国各地区都在利用资源优势,挖掘自身潜力,加快物流产业发展。然而,由于资源禀赋、社会经济发展情况、区位及交通设施等条件存在较大差异,各省份物流产业发展潜力及开发现状都呈现出明显的非平衡性。为了实现各地区物流产业均衡发展,对我国各地区物流产业发展潜力进行准确测度显得尤为重要。本文在对现有文献进行研究的基础上,对物流发展潜力的概念进行界定。首先,在系统论、区位论、生态承载力理论、可持续发展理论和新古典主义均衡发展理论的指导下,基于宏观经济学的研究视角,从物流需求和物流供给两方面构建物流发展潜力测算指标体系。其次,运用加权主成分TOPSIS价值函数模型对各地区物流发展潜力进行测度。最后,运用聚类分析和空间统计分析等方法对我国各地区物流发展潜力的空间分布特征进行分析。研究发现： (1)我国物流发展潜力呈现出明显的地带性分布特征,物流发展潜力较高的区域多集中于东部沿海地区,物流发展潜力较低的区域多集中于西部地区。资源禀赋和区域发展政策等因素使得物流发展潜力在空间分布上仍表现出一定程度的随机性。 (2)我国各地区物流发展潜力和物流发展实力之间的相关程度较高,然而二者在空间分布上并非完全一致。总体来看,我国大部分省份位于第Ⅰ、Ⅲ象限,少数省份的发展潜力未得到充分发挥。 (3)2008-2013年,我国不同地区物流发展潜力呈现出不同的波动状态,这与自然条件、资源情况、经济条件、产业结构类型等因素有着密切的联系。东部地区中,北京、辽宁、山东、上海、浙江、广东等地区的物流发展潜力波动性较低,说明这些区域的物流发展潜力达到较为稳定的阶段；中部地区中,河南的物流发展潜力水平波动性最低；西部省份的物流发展潜力水平波动性普遍较高。 (4)我国物流发展潜力的空间分布格局呈现出一定的规律性：在总体空间分布上,我国省际物流发展潜力表现出空间自相关性,相似的地区在空间上集聚分布。高一高集聚地区分布的空间结构,多是以环渤海地区和长三角地区为核心的图层空间结构,而云南、四川等西部省份则表现出明显的低一低集聚态势,并且随着物流发展潜力的整体提高,这种分布模式并没有发生根本性的变化。
[Abstract]:Logistics, as a form of social economic movement, has appeared since the beginning of commodity exchange in human society, but people have begun to attach importance to this social activity in recent decades. With the development of market economy in China, the importance of logistics has been gradually recognized. In recent years, all regions in China are exploiting their own potential and accelerating the development of logistics industry. However, due to the great differences in resource endowment, social and economic development, location and transportation facilities, the development potential and development status of logistics industry in various provinces show obvious imbalance. In order to realize the balanced development of regional logistics industry, it is very important to measure the development potential of regional logistics industry in China. This paper defines the concept of logistics development potential on the basis of research on existing literature. First of all, under the guidance of system theory, location theory, ecological carrying capacity theory, sustainable development theory and neo-classical balanced development theory, based on the perspective of macroeconomics, This paper constructs the index system of logistics development potential from two aspects of logistics demand and logistics supply. Secondly, the paper uses the weighted principal component TOPSIS value function model to measure the potential of logistics development in various regions. Finally, the spatial distribution characteristics of logistics development potential in various regions of China are analyzed by means of cluster analysis and spatial statistical analysis. The results are as follows: (1) the potential of logistics development in China shows obvious zonal distribution characteristics. The regions with higher logistics development potential are concentrated in the eastern coastal areas, and the regions with lower logistics development potential are mostly concentrated in the western regions. Some factors, such as resource endowment and regional development policy, make the logistics development potential still show a certain degree of randomness in spatial distribution. (2) the correlation between logistics development potential and logistics development strength in various regions of China is relatively high. However, the spatial distribution of the two is not exactly the same. In general, most of the provinces in China are located in the first and third quadrants, and a few provinces have not fully developed their development potential. (3) in 2008-2013, the potential of logistics development in different regions of China shows different fluctuations, which is similar to the natural conditions. Resources, economic conditions, industrial structure types and other factors have a close relationship. In the eastern region, Beijing, Liaoning, Shandong, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other regions have relatively low volatility of logistics development potential, indicating that the logistics development potential of these regions has reached a relatively stable stage; in the central region, The level of logistics development potential in Henan Province is the lowest, and the level of logistics development potential level in western provinces is generally high. (4) the spatial distribution pattern of logistics development potential in China shows certain regularity: in the overall spatial distribution, The development potential of interprovincial logistics in China shows spatial autocorrelation, and similar regions gather and distribute in space. The spatial structure of the high concentration areas in the first year of high school is mostly the map layer spatial structure with the Bohai Rim region and the Yangtze River Delta region as the core, while the western provinces of Yunnan, Sichuan and other western provinces show an obvious situation of low to low agglomeration. And with the overall improvement of logistics development potential, this distribution pattern has not changed fundamentally.
【学位授予单位】：太原理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F259.27

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