喀什350MW热电联产工程项目风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-02-15 11:44

本文关键词： 热电联产项目风险管理模糊灰色综合评价　出处：《华北电力大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：风险管理是工程项目管理中综合性较强的一种管理方法,是由包括风险识别、风险分析及风险控制等一系列流程组成的一种解决不确定性问题的方法。在工程项目管理中,风险管理是及其重要的组成部分。近年来,国家对发展能源工业、优化能源产业结构提出了新的要求。电源建设承担着城市基础设施建设与能源供应双重身份,其节能性与环保性更为重要。热电联产同时兼有发电和供热两方面作用,其能否顺利实施直接影响着城市整体能源供应和产业结构的优化,因此应做好热电联产项目风险评价和风险控制防范工作。本文结合项目风险评价要求及热电联产项目实际情况构建热电联产项目风险评价指标体系,设计评价模型对其风险水平进行评价具有一定的理论和现实意义。论文首先论述了热电联产项目及风险管理的相关理论,参照建设项目风险评价指标体系构建原则,构建了热电联产项目风险评价指标体系。从市场风险、技术风险、工程风险、资金风险、政策风险和外部协作风险等方面详细分析了喀什350MW热电联产项目的风险。从风险评价指标的特点出发,利用模糊灰色评价方法构建了热电联产项目风险评价模型,将此模型应用于喀什350MW热电联产项目的风险评价中,计算结果表明本文建立的体系评价指标体系及评价方法切实可行,能较好地解决热电联产项目风险评价问题,希望能为我国热电联产项目风险评价提供一定的指导作用。
[Abstract]:Risk management is a comprehensive management method in engineering project management, which consists of a series of processes including risk identification, risk analysis and risk control. Risk management is an important part. In recent years, the state has put forward new requirements to develop energy industry and optimize the structure of energy industry. Power supply construction bears the dual status of urban infrastructure construction and energy supply. It is more important to save energy and protect environment. The cogeneration of heat and power has two functions of power generation and heat supply, and its smooth implementation will directly affect the overall energy supply and the optimization of industrial structure in the city. Therefore, the risk assessment and risk control of cogeneration project should be done well. This paper constructs the risk evaluation index system of cogeneration project according to the project risk evaluation requirements and the actual situation of the cogeneration project. It has certain theoretical and practical significance to design evaluation model to evaluate its risk level. Firstly, the paper discusses the related theories of cogeneration project and risk management, and constructs the principle of risk evaluation index system of construction project. The evaluation index system of heat and power cogeneration project risk is constructed, which includes market risk, technical risk, engineering risk, capital risk, The risk of cogeneration project in Kashi 350 MW is analyzed in detail from the aspects of policy risk and external cooperation risk. Based on the characteristics of risk evaluation index, the risk evaluation model of cogeneration project is constructed by using fuzzy grey evaluation method. The model is applied to the risk evaluation of the cogeneration project in Kashi 350 MW. The results show that the evaluation index system and the evaluation method are feasible and can solve the risk evaluation problem of the cogeneration project. Hope to provide some guidance for China's cogeneration project risk evaluation.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TM621;TU71

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