含有营销变量的BASS模型研究

发布时间：2018-01-01 13:34

本文关键词：含有营销变量的BASS模型研究　出处：《北京邮电大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：20世纪60年代以来,随着创新扩散理论的不断深入研究,扩散模型在市场规模预测、产品扩散过程的预测中的应用引起了国内外学者的广泛关注,也不断有形形色色的新的创新扩散模型的提出。其中,最著名的是Frank.M. BASS在1969年提出的BASS模型,此后该模型成为扩散模型的主要研究方向之一,并广泛应用于汽车、通信、互联网以及电子商务等产品的市场预测。 BASS首次提出该扩散模型时,为了便于微分方程的求解,提出了一系列的假设,例如产品扩散过程中,最大市场潜力不变、产品扩散不受价格等营销变量的影响等,但后来随着对产品扩散过程以及扩散模型研究的不断深入,国内学者不断放宽BASS模型的假设条件,每个假设条件的修正都是BASS模型的一个改进方向。例如,人们逐渐认识到营销因素对产品扩散过程具有重要的影响,而BASS基础模型没有考虑营销因素,因此,以Robinson为代表的学者首次将价格纳入BASS模型,研究含有价格函数的BASS模型。现有含有价格变量的BASS改进模型研究中,主要将不同形式的价格函数引入基础BASS模型。但是,将价格函数加入基础BASS模型后,其微分方程的变量个数增加,形式更加复杂,很难给出解析解。因此,以往研究只局限于给出含有价格变量的改进模型,缺少实证分析。由此可见,研究能够便于进行实证研究的含有价格变量的BASS模型是一个有待解决的重要问题。为此,论文的研究目的是以基础BASS模型及其扩展模型为理论基础,通过对含有价格函数的BASS模型的改进,提出适合于实证研究的含有营销变量的BASS模型,并将模型应用于营销策略的制定中,以指导企业规划最优价格策略、最优广告策略等。论文的主要内容包括：价格是营销变量中的重要因素,对产品扩散过程具有很大影响,这是因为价格不仅可以直接影响企业的收益,同时也是影响消费者购买意愿和行为的重要因素。因此,在利用BASS模型研究产品的扩散规律时,需考虑价格等营销变量的影响。论文以现有含有营销变量函数的BASS模型为理论基础,将价格等营销变量的函数直接加到BASS模型解析解上,得到了便于实证研究的含有价格函数的BASS模型。并以价格这一营销变量为例,证明了将价格函数直接加到基础BASS模型上和加在BASS模型解析解是等价的。并利用中国移动用户数及其资费价格的历史数据,改进模型进行实证分析。结果表明,论文提出的改进BASS扩散模型可更好地描述产品的扩散过程,提高扩散模型的拟合精度。研究产品扩散规律的目的是为了更好地指导企业制定有利的产品营销、扩散策略,含有营销变量的BASS模型研究是为了更好地在产品扩散的生命周期中,为企业提供决策建议和支持。论文以含有价格函数的BASS模型为基础,建立利润函数最大化的目标函数,通过数学模型的论证,研究产品的价格函数的最优解和参数灵敏度,并给出最优解和参数变化的管理学意义,从而为企业制定产品价格策略提供决策依据。
[Abstract]:Since 1960s, with the deepening of research on innovation diffusion theory, the prediction on the size of the market diffusion model, prediction of product diffusion process in the attracted wide attention of scholars at home and abroad, put forward to the new innovation diffusion model of every hue. In which the most famous is the BASS model which was proposed by Frank.M. BASS in 1969 since then, this model has become one of the main research direction of diffusion model, and is widely used in automobile, communication, Internet and e-commerce and other products market forecasts.
BASS first proposed the diffusion model, in order to solve the differential equations, put forward a series of assumptions, such as product diffusion process, the same maximum market potential, product diffusion is not affected by the price of marketing variables, but later with the product diffusion process and the diffusion model of the continuous deepening of research, domestic scholars to relax the assumption of the BASS model, modified each hypothesis conditions are an improved direction BASS model. For example, people gradually realize that the marketing factors have important influence on product diffusion process, and the BASS based model does not consider the marketing factors, therefore, scholars represented by Robinson will be the first price in the BASS model. Study on BASS model containing price function.
The existing BASS contains the price variable improved model in this study, the main different forms of price function into the BASS model. However, the price of adding a function of BASS model, the differential equation of the number of variables increases, form more complex, difficult to obtain the analytical solution. Therefore, previous research is limited to the improved model are contained the price variable, lack of empirical analysis.
Thus, the research can facilitate the BASS model with price variable for empirical research is an important problem to be solved. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is based on the BASS model and its extended model as the theoretical basis, through improved BASS model with price function, put forward BASS model with marketing variables for empirical research, and the model is applied in the formulation of the marketing strategy, to guide the enterprise planning optimal price strategy, optimal advertising strategy. The main contents of this paper include:
The price is an important factor of marketing variables, has great influence on the product diffusion process, this is because the price can not only directly affect the profits of enterprises, but also an important factor affecting consumer purchase intention and behavior. Therefore, in the study of BASS model of product diffusion law, need to consider the effect of price and other marketing variables. The BASS model contains variable functions to the existing marketing theory, the analytic function is applied directly to the BASS price model of marketing variables on the solutions obtained, containing function of price BASS model for empirical research. And the price of the marketing variables, for example, that will be directly added to the price function based on BASS model in addition to BASS and analytical solution of the model is proved. And the use of historical data and the number of users of China Mobile price, the improved model for empirical analysis. The results show that the proposed The improved BASS diffusion model can better describe the diffusion process of the product and improve the fitting precision of the diffusion model.
Research on product diffusion in order to guide enterprises to establish favorable product marketing, diffusion strategy, BASS model with marketing variables is in order to better product diffusion in the life cycle, provide advice and support for the enterprise. Based on the BASS model with the price function based on the objective function to establish a profit function maximization, through mathematical model demonstration, the optimal price function of product solutions and parameter sensitivity, meaning change and give the optimal solution and parameter management, so as to provide decision-making basis for enterprise to develop product price strategy.

【学位授予单位】：北京邮电大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F274

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