基于供需关系下旅客转移行为的铁路客票收益管理研究

发布时间：2018-02-04 12:22

本文关键词： 供需关系旅客转移行为收益管理联合优化期望总收益　出处：《西南交通大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着铁路网的进一步完善,我国铁路客运能力将进一步得到释放,如何更加有效的利用铁路客运产品的运输能力,将是铁路企业亟待解决的问题。另一方面,我国客运市场竞争态势日趋激烈,铁路部门若要占据优势地位,就必须促使其营销管理向精细化、效益化转变,以提高我国铁路客运行业的整体收益水平。在当前背景下,收益管理成了我国铁路客运行业有效利用各种运输资源、提高行业竞争力的创新型途径。以供需关系下受旅客转移行为影响的铁路客票收益管理为研究对象,以促使期望总收益最大为目标,本文主要在以下两个方向展开研究:(1)对在供需不匹配下的旅客转移行为进行定量描述和分析;(2)分别基于不同客运产品和不同票价等级供需关系下旅客的转移行为通过对多区间客票优化的研究制定相关收益管理模型,以主动引导旅客在供需不匹配下选择行为的变化促使整体收益最大化。本文首先在对收益管理发展及定义进行概述的基础上,结合近些年收益管理的研究成果,指出了未来收益管理研究的主要难点和趋势,并对我国铁路客运行业实施收益管理的适应性与特殊性进行了分析,对以后有关我国铁路客票收益管理相关理论和方法的研究具有重要的借鉴意义,然后总结了与本文相关的收益管理基础模型。其次,在铁路客票收益管理需求预测方面,本文首先分析了历史售票数据不能直接反应出旅客真实需求的原因,进而将无约束需求预测的概念引入铁路客票收益管理研究领域,并从单维和多维的角度对无约束需求估计的相关方法进行了详细概述。然后,在铁路旅客选择行为方面,相比之前的以旅客主动意愿选择行为为主要研究对象,本文进一步对供需不匹配下旅客的转移行为展开研究。首先以广义出行费用代替效用函数建立了初始客流分担率模型,然后进一步设计了在供需不匹配下旅客在不同客运产品间转移概率的计算方法,不仅反映了铁路旅客对各种客运产品的需求意愿,同时,可以定量描述出在实际受运输能力或控制策略限制下旅客的转移行为。最后,在铁路客票收益管理模型方面,围绕收益管理的研究趋势,一方面,针对我国目前铁路客票单一票价的特点,基于两种不同客运产品供需关系下的旅客选择行为,并将其嵌入网络收益管理模型中,建立了一个非线性整数规划模型同时实现对两种不同客运产品多区间客票的联合优化(第四章);另一方面,在对未来票价体制发展趋势分析下,以收益管理差别定价为背景,基于旅客向上购买行为,利用嵌套型席位控制方法建立了单一席位类型两种不同价格等级客票的多区间优化模型(第五章)。利用改进的粒子群算法对上述两个模型进行求解,并分别通过算例对模型进行数值分析,以观察旅客选择行为对席位控制决策及整体收益的影响。
[Abstract]:With the further improvement of railway network, China's railway passenger transport capacity will be further released, how to make more effective use of the transport capacity of railway passenger transport products, will be a problem to be solved urgently by railway enterprises on the other hand. Our country passenger transport market competition situation day by day intense, if the railroad department wants to occupy the superiority position, must urge its marketing management to be refined, the benefit transformation. In order to improve the overall income level of China's railway passenger transport industry. Under the current background, revenue management has become the effective use of various transport resources in China's railway passenger transport industry. To improve the competitiveness of the industry innovative approaches. Under the relationship between supply and demand affected by passenger transfer behavior of railway ticket revenue management as the research object, in order to promote the maximum expected total income as the goal. This paper mainly focuses on the following two directions: 1) quantitative description and analysis of the behavior of passenger transfer under the mismatch of supply and demand; Based on different passenger transport products and different fare levels of the relationship between supply and demand passenger transfer behavior through the study of multi-interval ticket optimization to develop the relevant revenue management model. In order to guide passengers to change their choice behavior under the mismatch of supply and demand, the overall income is maximized. Firstly, this paper summarizes the development and definition of revenue management, and combines the research results of revenue management in recent years. This paper points out the main difficulties and trends of the future revenue management research, and analyzes the adaptability and particularity of the revenue management in China's railway passenger transport industry. It is of great significance to study the related theories and methods of railway ticket revenue management in China, and then summarize the basic model of revenue management related to this paper. Secondly. In the railway ticket revenue management demand prediction, this paper first analyzes the historical ticket sales data can not directly reflect the real demand of passengers. Then the concept of unconstrained demand forecasting is introduced into the research field of railway ticket revenue management, and the relevant methods of unconstrained demand estimation are summarized in detail from the perspective of single and multidimensional. Then. In the aspect of railway passenger choice behavior, compared with the previous one, the main research object is the passenger's initiative choice behavior. In this paper, the transfer behavior of passengers under the mismatch of supply and demand is further studied. Firstly, the initial passenger flow sharing rate model is established with generalized travel cost instead of utility function. Then the paper further designs the calculation method of passenger transfer probability between different passenger products under the mismatch of supply and demand, which not only reflects the desire of railway passengers for various passenger transport products, but also. We can quantitatively describe the transfer behavior of passengers under the constraints of actual transportation capacity or control strategy. Finally, in the railway ticket revenue management model, around the research trend of revenue management, on the one hand. According to the characteristics of single ticket price of railway ticket in our country, based on the passenger choice behavior under the relationship between supply and demand of two different passenger transport products, it is embedded in the network revenue management model. A nonlinear integer programming model is established to realize the joint optimization of two different passenger products with multi-interval ticket simultaneously (Chapter 4th). On the other hand, under the analysis of the development trend of the future fare system, taking the income management differential pricing as the background, based on the upward purchase behavior of passengers. The multi-interval optimization model of single seat type and two different price grades is established by using nested seat control method (Chapter 5th). The improved particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to solve the above two models. Numerical analysis of the model is carried out through numerical examples to observe the influence of passenger selection behavior on seat control decision and overall income.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F532;F274

【共引文献】