电力市场用电量需求分析预测模型研究

发布时间：2018-02-05 01:31

本文关键词： 预测用电量需求驱动因素信用度评价大数据平台　出处：《电测与仪表》2017年14期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：结合广东省某市历史用电量数据,通过行业细分,设计了基于行业用电特性的电力市场用电量需求分析预测模型的总体架构,包括基于大数据平台的云计算技术架构设计,可有效解决“数据孤岛”的弊病。基于该架构和实例分析,讨论了几种常用的电量分析预测方法,包括行业驱动因素法、电力弹性系数法和电力相似月法等,给出了相应的预测过程和预测结果。然后,结合电量分析,进行了行业信用等级评价及景气指数分析模型的研究。最后,基于模型设计,探讨了电网-用户-售电商三方在市场竞争机制下的供需互动关系。所设计的模型可为市场营销服务策略的制定、电费回收、行业信用度评价及预警提供数理依据和模型,提高市场分析决策的能力。
[Abstract]:Based on the historical data of electricity consumption in a certain city of Guangdong province, the paper designs the overall framework of electricity demand analysis and prediction model based on industry characteristics through industry subdivision. This paper includes the design of cloud computing technology architecture based on big data platform, which can effectively solve the problem of "data island". Based on this architecture and case analysis, several commonly used methods of electricity analysis and prediction are discussed. Including the industry driving factor method, power elasticity coefficient method and power similar month method, the corresponding forecasting process and prediction results are given. Then, combined with electricity analysis. The industry credit rating evaluation and prosperity index analysis model is studied. Finally, based on the model design. The interaction between supply and demand in the market competition mechanism is discussed. The model can be used to formulate the marketing service strategy and recover the electricity charge. Industry credit evaluation and early warning provide mathematical basis and model to improve the ability of market analysis and decision-making.
【作者单位】：广东电网有限责任公司东莞供电局;
【分类号】：F426.61
【正文快照】： 0引言基于大数据平台模式下建立科学合理的电量分析预测管理办法具有重要意义,有助于电力市场营销部门制定有效的购售电策略,及电网企业充分挖掘潜在的用电用户,更加科学合理地进行错峰供电。基于大数据分析技术的电力市场用电量信息与多源信息的特性及之间关系的研究显得尤为

【相似文献】