平安大厦房地产开发项目风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-03-06 01:05

本文选题：平安大厦　切入点：风险管理　出处：《湖南大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着中国经济的快速发展,房地产行业发展迅猛,在房地产项目建设过程中,难免会遇到来自各个方面的风险因素的影响,为了规避和降低这些风险因素对于项目实施的影响,做好项目风险管理越来越重要。随着项目管理理论体系的不断完善,国内外风险管理相关理论方法也在进一步发展中,逐渐发展成为一门综合性学科。然而,我国在房地产建设项目风险管理的应用上还处于起步阶段,相对于国外发达国家还存在一定的差距,因此,房地产开发企业必须认真审视和充分认识到项目风险管理在房地产建设项目中的重要价值。本文以平安大厦房地产开发项目为研究对象,运用项目风险管理理论和方法对其进行了实证分析,主要研究内容如下:首先,阐述了本文的选题背景、研究意义、国内外风险管理研究现状,介绍了平安大厦房地产开发项目基本情况,提出了本文的研究方法、研究内容及结构框架;其次,阐述了项目风险管理、项目风险分析方法等理论基础;再次,识别出平安大厦房地产开发项目决策阶段、准备阶段、实施阶段、经营阶段存在的主要风险因素,在此基础上,建立了平安大厦房地产开发项目风险评价指标体系,运用基于层次分析法和专家打分法对项目风险做出评价;最后,提出平安大厦房地产开发项目风险应对措施,在项目决策阶段,要强化市场调研活动、采用科学方法确定项目估算、加强市场分析和预测、做好财务分析和现金流预测、健全风险预警系统;在项目准备阶段,要重视项目设计方案的经济分析、做好项目施工招标工作、加强项目施工合同管理、强化与各方沟通交流、做好项目实施前的市场预测;在项目实施阶段,要加强施工安全管理和特种设备的检测、有效控制工程变更、及时支付工程价款、工程量变化的价款确定与调整、核实工程变更和签证、协调工期、质量和成本的合理关系、注重档案管理并建立预测机制;在项目经营阶段,要做好竞争项目的调研分析、加强市场趋向和政策预测研究、选择合理的营销模式。本文的创新点在于运用项目风险管理理论和方法对平安大厦房地产开发项目进行了实证分析,在识别项目四个阶段风险因素的基础上,建立了项目风险评价指标体系,运用基于层次分析法的模糊综合评价方法对项目风险做出评价,进而有针对性的提出了具体的项目风险应对措施,可为项目建设企业实施风险管理提供理论方法指导和案例经验参考。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy and the rapid development of the real estate industry, in the process of real estate project construction, it is inevitable to meet the impact of various risk factors, in order to avoid and reduce the impact of these risk factors on the implementation of the project. It is more and more important to do a good job in project risk management. With the continuous improvement of project management theory system, the related theories and methods of risk management at home and abroad are developing further, and gradually develop into a comprehensive subject. The application of risk management in real estate construction projects in China is still in its infancy, and there is still a certain gap compared with developed countries abroad. Real estate development enterprises must carefully examine and fully realize the important value of project risk management in real estate construction projects. The main research contents are as follows: firstly, the background of this paper, the significance of the research, the current situation of risk management research at home and abroad, are analyzed empirically by using the theory and method of project risk management. This paper introduces the basic situation of the real estate development project of Ping an Mansion, and puts forward the research methods, contents and structure framework of this paper. Secondly, it expounds the theoretical basis of project risk management and project risk analysis. On the basis of identifying the main risk factors in the decision-making stage, preparation stage, implementation stage and management stage of the real estate development project of Ping an Mansion, a risk evaluation index system for the real estate development project of Ping'an Mansion is established. Based on AHP and expert scoring method to evaluate the project risk; finally, put forward the real estate development project risk response measures, in the project decision-making phase, we should strengthen market research activities, We should adopt scientific method to determine project estimation, strengthen market analysis and forecast, make financial analysis and cash flow forecast, perfect risk early warning system, and pay attention to the economic analysis of project design scheme in the stage of project preparation. To do a good job in bidding for construction projects, strengthen the management of project construction contracts, strengthen communication and exchange with all parties, and make good market forecasts before the implementation of projects; in the phase of project implementation, it is necessary to strengthen construction safety management and the inspection of special equipment, Effective control of engineering changes, timely payment of project cost, determination and adjustment of project quantity change price, verification of project change and visa, coordination of reasonable relationship between time limit, quality and cost, attention to file management and establishment of forecasting mechanism; In the project management phase, it is necessary to do a good job in the investigation and analysis of competitive projects, and strengthen market trends and policy prediction studies. The innovation of this paper is to use the theory and method of project risk management to analyze the real estate development project of Ping an Mansion, on the basis of identifying the risk factors in the four stages of the project. The index system of project risk evaluation is established, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on AHP is used to evaluate the project risk, and then the concrete measures to deal with the project risk are put forward. It can provide theoretical guidance and case reference for project construction enterprises to implement risk management.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TU71;F299.23

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