基于工商协同的卷烟月度投放量预测模型

发布时间：2018-03-18 15:27

本文选题：工商协同　切入点：卷烟投放量　出处：《中国烟草学报》2015年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为准确预测卷烟月度投放量,采用时间序列模型中的季节变动预测法,根据实际情况改进算法,设定了"下月日均销量"和"目标月存销比"这两个定量调控预测手段,通过存销比管理,建立了卷烟月度投放量预测模型。实证检验表明该模型能够进行较为准确的月度预测,可以据此在工商协同营销系统中创新、优化工商月度网上配货工作。
[Abstract]:In order to accurately predict the monthly cigarette quantity, the seasonal variation forecasting method in the time series model was used to improve the algorithm according to the actual situation, and two quantitative control and prediction methods, "average sales volume next month" and "target monthly ratio of storage and sales", were set up. Through the management of the ratio of storage and sales, the forecast model of monthly cigarette quantity is established, and the empirical test shows that the model can make more accurate monthly forecast, which can be used to innovate in the cooperative marketing system of industry and commerce, and optimize the monthly online distribution of goods for industry and commerce.
【作者单位】：红塔烟草(集团)有限责任公司工艺质量部;
【分类号】：F426.8;F274

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