基于后悔理论与多Agent模拟的新产品扩散消费者决策互动行为研究

发布时间：2018-04-07 15:21

本文选题：后悔理论　切入点：进化博弈　出处：《中国管理科学》2017年11期

【摘要】：基于后悔理论,对新产品扩散消费者决策互动行为进行多智能体模拟研究。从进化博弈视角构建了消费者决策行为模型,结合心理学与后悔理论,设计出一种综合考虑自身与邻居个性特征以及历史信息的学习规则,并用多智能体方法对消费者群体决策场景进行仿真。在仿真软件Anylogic6.5.0上进行多Agent模拟实验,模拟结果表明:(1)产品收益b越大,越有利于群体的决策状态稳定,反之,决策波动大;(2)消费者群体决策的宏观趋势由产品扩散成本和因未购买而损失的收益决定。当产品扩散成本c与因未购买而损失的收益f相当时,群体决策行为呈针锋相对态;当扩散成本较高时,拒绝占优;反之,则购买占优;(3)消费者群体间沟通学习强度影响决策波动性,强度高时,群体决策变化大,而低强度下,群体行为稳定。该研究可为新产品扩散营销策略制定提供支持,并为将心理学相关理论与演化博弈应用于Agent模型提出一个基础框架。
[Abstract]:Based on regret theory, a multi-agent simulation study on consumer decision-making interaction behavior of new product diffusion is carried out.From the perspective of evolutionary game, this paper constructs a model of consumer decision-making behavior, combines psychology and regret theory, and designs a learning rule that considers the personality characteristics of its own and neighbors and historical information.The multi-agent method is used to simulate the consumer group decision-making scene.The simulation results on the simulation software Anylogic6.5.0 show that the bigger the product income b is, the more stable the decision-making state of the group is.The macro trend of consumer group decision is determined by the cost of product diffusion and the loss of profit due to non-purchase.When the product diffusion cost c is equal to the lost profit f due to non-purchase, the group decision-making behavior is tit-for-tat opposite; when the diffusion cost is high, the group refuses to dominate; conversely,When the intensity is high, the group decision-making changes greatly, but the group behavior is stable at low intensity.This research can provide support for the formulation of new product diffusion marketing strategy and provide a basic framework for applying psychological theory and evolutionary game to Agent model.
【作者单位】：武汉理工大学经济学院;同济大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71601151,71172043,71701075) 中国博士后基金面上资助项目(2014M552102) 湖北省自然科学基金资助项目(2014-IV-114) 教育部人文社科基金青年项目资助项目(16YJC630131)
【分类号】：F224;F713.55

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