安徽J酒业股份有限公司财务风险预警研究
发布时间：2018-08-09 11:53
【摘要】：近几年来,白酒行业的市场形势低迷,而且竞争压力极大,一直处在寒冬期。白酒行业已经不复2002-2012年的十年黄金的辉煌巅峰成就,从2012年以来,白酒行业出现了酒鬼酒塑化剂事件和古井贡酒勾兑门,这使白酒行业陷入巨大危机;而且因“三公消费”、禁酒令等政策因素和中国经济发展速度放缓的大背景下的白酒产业发展周期的因素影响下,白酒行业正处于现在的寒冬期。安徽J酒业股份有限公司是一家拥有两个中国驰名商标、一个“中华老字号”产品的坚持打造中国大众名酒实力品牌的白酒上市公司。公司近年来受白酒行业整体影响,虽然整体产业规模不断扩大,可是盈利能力和成长能力都在逐年下降,目前公司虽然没有出现亏损,可面对潜在财务风险,管理层依然需要重视。本文通过对安徽J酒业股份有限公司进行财务分析,建立适合安徽J酒业股份有限公司的财务风险模型,有利于公司管理层对企业财务风险的实时掌控,能够让企业及时地规避伤害到自身的财务风险。首先,简单地介绍了白酒行业发展的背景情况以及白酒行业需要建立财务风险预警的研究背景与研究意义,分别从风险、财务风险和风险预警这三个方面梳理了国内外的研究现状,并加以评述,并且介绍了风险、财务风险、风险预警以及现金流量等相关概念和理论研究。其次,对安徽J酒业股份有限公司的主营业务、企业规模、市场竞争力等方面进行了介绍,并分别从筹资风险、投资风险、经营风险及收益分配风险这四个方面出发,由纵向和横向两个方向,采用传统财务指标全面对安徽J酒业股份有限公司进行财务分析,与行业内可比企业相比较,发现安徽J酒业股份有限公司存在着长期偿债能力不足,对外投资情况不稳定,企业盈利状况差,主营业务收入和净利润均逐年递减等财务风险问题。最后,结合行业特点和企业的实际情况,将基于资产负债表和利润表基础上的财务指标与基于现金流量表上的现金流量指标结合在一起,分别从筹资风险、投资风险、经营风险及收益分配风险这四个层次着手,通过与行业内可比企业财务风险预警指标数据对比来构建安徽J酒业股份有限公司财务风险预警模型。运用可比企业的预警结果对建立的财务风险预警模型作相应的验证,并为安徽J酒业股份有限公司财务风险进行预警,并发现安徽J酒业股份有限公司2015年的财务风险与同行业可比企业相比,总体处于轻警状态,企业成长能力比较严重下降。并从企业过度营销策略、品牌战略、现金流量管理以及风险管控部门建立等角度提出了适合安徽J酒业股份有限公司的具体的财务风险防范措施。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the market situation of liquor industry is low, and the competition pressure is great. The liquor industry is no longer at the golden peak of the decade from 2002 to 2012. Since 2012, the liquor industry has seen the event of wine and wine plasticizer and the blending door of Gujing Gong, which has plunged the liquor industry into a huge crisis; and because of the "three public consumption," Under the influence of the policy factors such as prohibition and the development cycle of liquor industry under the background of slowing down of China's economic development the liquor industry is now in the cold winter period. Anhui J Liquor Co., Ltd is a listed liquor company with two famous Chinese trademarks and one famous Chinese brand. In recent years, the company has been affected by the liquor industry as a whole. Although the overall scale of the industry continues to expand, the profitability and growth ability of the company are declining year by year. Although the company has not made a loss at present, it can face potential financial risks. Management still needs attention. Based on the financial analysis of Anhui J Liquor Co., Ltd., this paper establishes a financial risk model suitable for Anhui J Liquor Co., Ltd., which is helpful for the management of the company to control the financial risk of the enterprise in real time. Can let the enterprise avoid the financial risk that hurts oneself in time. Firstly, the background of the development of liquor industry and the research background and significance of establishing financial risk early warning in liquor industry are briefly introduced. This paper reviews the current situation of financial risk and risk warning at home and abroad, and introduces the concepts and theories of risk, financial risk, risk early warning and cash flow. Secondly, it introduces the main business, enterprise scale and market competitiveness of Anhui J Wine Co., Ltd., and starts from four aspects: financing risk, investment risk, management risk and income distribution risk. From the vertical and horizontal directions, this paper makes a comprehensive financial analysis of Anhui J Liquor Co., Ltd. by using traditional financial indicators. Compared with comparable enterprises in the industry, Anhui J Liquor Co., Ltd. is found to have insufficient long-term solvency. The foreign investment is unstable, the enterprise profit condition is bad, the main business income and the net profit both decrease year by year and so on financial risk problem. Finally, according to the characteristics of the industry and the actual situation of the enterprise, the financial indicators based on the balance sheet and the profit statement are combined with the cash flow indicators based on the cash flow statement, respectively from the financing risk, investment risk, Starting from the four levels of management risk and income distribution risk, the financial risk early warning model of Anhui J Liquor Co., Ltd. is constructed by comparing with the financial risk warning index data of comparable enterprises in the industry. Using the warning results of comparable enterprises to verify the established financial risk warning model, and for Anhui J Liquor Co., Ltd. financial risk early warning, It is also found that the financial risk of Anhui J Liquor Co., Ltd. in 2015 is in a state of light warning compared with comparable enterprises in the same industry, and the growth ability of enterprises is seriously reduced. From the perspective of excessive marketing strategy, brand strategy, cash flow management and the establishment of risk control department, this paper puts forward specific financial risk prevention measures suitable for Anhui J Wine Co., Ltd.
【学位授予单位】：阜阳师范学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.82;F406.7
本文编号：2173993
[Abstract]:In recent years, the market situation of liquor industry is low, and the competition pressure is great. The liquor industry is no longer at the golden peak of the decade from 2002 to 2012. Since 2012, the liquor industry has seen the event of wine and wine plasticizer and the blending door of Gujing Gong, which has plunged the liquor industry into a huge crisis; and because of the "three public consumption," Under the influence of the policy factors such as prohibition and the development cycle of liquor industry under the background of slowing down of China's economic development the liquor industry is now in the cold winter period. Anhui J Liquor Co., Ltd is a listed liquor company with two famous Chinese trademarks and one famous Chinese brand. In recent years, the company has been affected by the liquor industry as a whole. Although the overall scale of the industry continues to expand, the profitability and growth ability of the company are declining year by year. Although the company has not made a loss at present, it can face potential financial risks. Management still needs attention. Based on the financial analysis of Anhui J Liquor Co., Ltd., this paper establishes a financial risk model suitable for Anhui J Liquor Co., Ltd., which is helpful for the management of the company to control the financial risk of the enterprise in real time. Can let the enterprise avoid the financial risk that hurts oneself in time. Firstly, the background of the development of liquor industry and the research background and significance of establishing financial risk early warning in liquor industry are briefly introduced. This paper reviews the current situation of financial risk and risk warning at home and abroad, and introduces the concepts and theories of risk, financial risk, risk early warning and cash flow. Secondly, it introduces the main business, enterprise scale and market competitiveness of Anhui J Wine Co., Ltd., and starts from four aspects: financing risk, investment risk, management risk and income distribution risk. From the vertical and horizontal directions, this paper makes a comprehensive financial analysis of Anhui J Liquor Co., Ltd. by using traditional financial indicators. Compared with comparable enterprises in the industry, Anhui J Liquor Co., Ltd. is found to have insufficient long-term solvency. The foreign investment is unstable, the enterprise profit condition is bad, the main business income and the net profit both decrease year by year and so on financial risk problem. Finally, according to the characteristics of the industry and the actual situation of the enterprise, the financial indicators based on the balance sheet and the profit statement are combined with the cash flow indicators based on the cash flow statement, respectively from the financing risk, investment risk, Starting from the four levels of management risk and income distribution risk, the financial risk early warning model of Anhui J Liquor Co., Ltd. is constructed by comparing with the financial risk warning index data of comparable enterprises in the industry. Using the warning results of comparable enterprises to verify the established financial risk warning model, and for Anhui J Liquor Co., Ltd. financial risk early warning, It is also found that the financial risk of Anhui J Liquor Co., Ltd. in 2015 is in a state of light warning compared with comparable enterprises in the same industry, and the growth ability of enterprises is seriously reduced. From the perspective of excessive marketing strategy, brand strategy, cash flow management and the establishment of risk control department, this paper puts forward specific financial risk prevention measures suitable for Anhui J Wine Co., Ltd.
【学位授予单位】：阜阳师范学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.82;F406.7
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