复杂社会网络结构与创新抗拒关系的仿真研究

发布时间：2018-08-24 14:23

【摘要】：受欧美金融危机以及国内产业结构调整的影响，中国经济增速持续放缓，表现在市场上则是消费者开始谨慎消费，企业产销受阻。开发新产品成为企业生存、发展及获得竞争优势的一个重要途径。然而，新产品上市的失败率非常令人吃惊，绝大多数的新产品均会遇到创新抗拒。研究表明，创新扩散的重要（传播）渠道是社会网络，因此社会网络对消费者创新抗拒的影响必然不可低估。本研究通过对复杂社会网络以及创新抗拒的相关研究进行回顾，研究了复杂社会网络结构与创新抗拒的关系，希望了解创新产品在何种结构的社会网络中更易扩散失败，为企业规避复杂社会网络带来的创新抗拒风险，以及科学利用复杂社会网络影响消费者创新采用提供一定的参考和借鉴。本文通过建模与仿真的方法，选择小世界网络模型代表实际社会网络，用微观扩散模型模拟实际的创新扩散过程。仿真研究发现，，在连接更加随机的社会网络中反而更容易出现创新抗拒，而且社会网络中的初始使用者人数较少时，创新也不易扩散成功。同时本文基于社会网络的视角，通过对比说明移动即时通信应用—米聊扩散失败的原因，从侧面说明了本文仿真结果具有一定的实际解释力度。最后就新产品上市时，如何减少市场的创新抗拒给出了营销建议。
[Abstract]:Affected by the financial crisis in Europe and the United States and the adjustment of the domestic industrial structure, China's economic growth rate has continued to slow, and in the market, consumers are beginning to consume cautiously, and enterprises' production and sales are blocked. Developing new products has become an important way for enterprises to survive, develop and gain competitive advantage. However, the failure rate of new products to market is very surprising, most new products will encounter innovation resistance. The research shows that the important channel of innovation diffusion is social network, so the influence of social network on consumer innovation resistance must not be underestimated. By reviewing the research of complex social network and innovation resistance, this study studies the relationship between complex social network structure and innovation resistance, and hopes to understand the structure in which innovative products are more prone to proliferation and failure. It provides a certain reference for enterprises to avoid the risk of innovation resistance brought by complex social networks and to scientifically use complex social networks to influence consumer innovation adoption. In this paper, the small-world network model is chosen to represent the actual social network through modeling and simulation, and the micro-diffusion model is used to simulate the actual innovation diffusion process. Simulation results show that innovation resistance is more likely to occur in social networks with more random connections, and innovation is not easy to spread successfully when the number of initial users in social networks is small. At the same time, based on the perspective of social network, this paper compares the reasons for the failure of mobile instant messaging application-Mi chat diffusion, and shows that the simulation results in this paper have a certain degree of practical explanation. Finally, the paper gives the marketing advice on how to reduce the market innovation resistance when the new product goes on sale.
【学位授予单位】：武汉科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：O157.5

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