技术预测中咨询专家人数、权重和评价意见的讨论

发布时间：2018-05-19 16:51

本文选题：德尔菲调查 + 技术预测　；参考：《中国科技论坛》2007年05期

【摘要】：本文利用我国信息、生物、新材料等9个领域的技术预测调查结果,对咨询专家人数、权重和评价意见的正态性等问题进行了讨论。结果表明:熟悉专家的意见具有一定的代表性,一般来讲,在技术预测中咨询21～25位熟悉专家比较合适;如果咨询专家的人数达到100人左右,根据专家熟悉程度进行加权和等权所计算的技术重要性指数存在线性关系,其相关系数为0.9535,即加权与等权的计算结果差异不大。此外,所有领域专家的评价意见均服从正态分布,说明专家的评价意见比较客观。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the number of consultants, weights and normality of evaluation opinions are discussed by using the results of technical prediction in 9 fields of information, biology and new materials in China. The results show that the opinions of familiar experts are representative, generally speaking, it is more appropriate to consult 21 or 25 familiar experts in technical forecasting; if the number of consultants is about 100, There is a linear relationship between the technical importance index calculated by weighted weight and equal weight according to the degree of familiarity of experts, and the correlation coefficient is 0.9535, that is to say, there is little difference between the calculation results of weighted and equal weight. In addition, the evaluation opinions of experts in all fields are subject to normal distribution, indicating that the evaluation opinions of experts are more objective.
【作者单位】：中国科学技术促进发展研究中心
【分类号】：C932

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