多主体协同治理下城市密集建筑群火灾风险管理与应用

发布时间：2018-01-19 15:17

本文关键词： 城市密集建筑群火灾风险管理多主体协同治理 LEC评价法平台构建　出处：《管理评论》2016年08期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文提出研究基于LEC评价法的多主体协同治理城市密集建筑群火灾风险管理方法,从风险识别、风险评价与评估、平台构建与实现方法、案例分析、政策建议等,给出了一套多主体协同治理下城市密集建筑群火灾的创新风险管理思路;首次将城市密集建筑群火灾风险管理的多主体分为外部相关主体、内部主体和基层主体三大类,并对各类相关多主体进行主体和客体脆弱性分析;运用多主体协同治理理论、结合海因里希因果连锁理论和LEC评价法相结合,对城市密集建筑群火灾风险发生的可能性、暴露性以及导致的结果进行风险评价和危险性评估;构建了多主体协同治理下城市密集建筑群火灾风险管理系统平台,实现了对城市密集建筑群火灾风险进行多主体实时联动治理;本文还结合天津滨海新区大爆炸案例,设计了相应的多主体治理方案,对火灾危险等级进行LEC评价,并进行多主体联动治理系统平台应用;最后,本文给出城市密集建筑群火灾风险管理相关政策建议。本文的研究对我国城市密集建筑群火灾风险管理具有重要的理论指导意义和科学实践价值。
[Abstract]:This paper proposes a multi-agent collaborative fire risk management method based on LEC evaluation method, from risk identification, risk assessment and evaluation, platform construction and implementation method, case analysis. A set of innovative risk management ideas for urban dense buildings fire under multi-agent coordinated control are given. For the first time, the multi-subjects of fire risk management in urban dense buildings are divided into three categories: external related subject, internal subject and basic-level subject, and the vulnerability of each kind of related multi-subject is analyzed. Using the theory of multi-agent cooperative governance, combining with Heinrich causality linkage theory and LEC evaluation method, the possibility of fire risk in urban dense buildings is discussed. Risk assessment and risk assessment of exposure and the resulting results; The fire risk management system platform of urban dense building group under multi-agent cooperative management is constructed, and the fire risk management of urban dense building group is realized in real time. Based on the case of the Big Bang in Tianjin Binhai New area, this paper designs the corresponding multi-agent control scheme, evaluates the fire hazard grade by LEC, and carries out the application of the multi-agent linkage control system platform. Finally, this paper gives some policy suggestions on fire risk management of urban dense buildings. The research in this paper has important theoretical guiding significance and scientific practical value for fire risk management of urban dense buildings in China.
【作者单位】：暨南大学公共管理学院/应急管理学院/金融工程研究所;广东省公共网络安全风险评价与预警应急技术研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71173089) 广东省科技计划资助项目(1311220800027;2016A020224001)
【分类号】：D632.5
【正文快照】： 引言2014年8月12日,在国内外引起巨大轰动的“8·12”天津滨海新区危化品爆炸,火势迅猛,最终造成165人死亡,直接经济损失达700亿元以上。距离爆炸中心一公里范围内有3个密集社区合计入住数超过5600户,周边还有18个物流公司及仓库,两公里范围内多达10个以上的密集住宅楼,此次爆

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