城市群重大公共安全事件应急指挥协同研究

发布时间：2018-02-01 23:54

  本文关键词： 城市群 重大公共安全事件 应急指挥 协同　出处：《华中科技大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,中国政府已把城市群作为国家发展的重大战略,党中央“十一五”规划指出,要把城市群作为推进城镇化建设的主体形态,“十二五”规划进一步提出“两横三纵”的城市化发展战略格局。随着城市化进程的加快,城市规模的不断扩张,人口、建筑物的高度密集,一旦在城市群中发生重大公共安全事件,其危害性是在其他任何地区不可比拟的,对国家和社会造成的损失和破坏是不可估量的。城市群重大公共安全事件的发生会对相关区域整体公共安全和经济社会的可持续发展构成严重威胁。其扩散、演变过程涉及到多主体、多维度,多因素交互作用,是一个非线性的复杂大系统。因此,实现城市群中各城市应急资源的合理配置就显得非常重要,其中的关键问题是如何优化设计应急指挥协作关系。本文选题来自于国家自然科学基金项目“面向应急决策支持的非常规突发事件案例推理的理论与方法”(编号：91324203)”,以城市群重大公共安全事件应急指挥协同为研究目标,选取应急指挥组织结构作为突破口,首先阐述城市群重大公共安全事件应急指挥及其要素构成,在此基础上研究城市群重大公共安全事件应急指挥模式框架及实现路径。进而揭示城市群重大公共安全事件应急指挥协同的三种模式。然后在设计城市群应急指挥组织协作网的基础上,对城市群应急指挥组织决策树进行了描述和分析,由此对城市群应急指挥组织决策树的设计构建了数学模型。最后,分别以长三角和珠三角城市群为案例分析对象,应用应急指挥决策模型和算法对两个城市群的重大公共安全事件应急指挥关系进行了优化设计,验证了城市群各结点城市之间的应急指挥有效协作。本论文的主要研究内容为：在梳理应急指挥协同理论与方法的基础上,结合对城市群重大公共安全事件和城市群重大公共安全事件应急指挥概念的界定,分析了城市群重大公共安全事件应急指挥要素的构成,并指出了城市群重大公共安全事应急指挥各要素之间的联系。对城市群重大公共安全应急指挥模式框架进行了深入分析,包括城市群重大公共安全应急指挥系统构成、城市群重大公共安全应急指挥体系,在此基础上分析城市群重大公共安全应急指挥的实现路径。界定了城市群重大公共安全事件应急指挥协同的概念、特征及构成要素,在此基础上,分析应急指挥协同的三种模式。进一步指出城市群重大公共安全事件应急指挥协同的核心问题,即研究基于网络的分布式应急指挥协同。认为可通过构建城市群重大公共安全事件应急指挥关系优化模型,从而实现城市群各结点城市应急指挥中心之间的有效协作。在城市群应急指挥组织协作网设计的基础上,对城市群应急指挥组织决策树进行了描述和分析,定义了城市群应急指挥组织内的间接外部协作和指控组织总的工作负载,由此对城市群应急指挥组织决策树的设计给出了数学描述。利用Gomory-Hu树生成算法对城市群应急指挥组织决策树进行求解,分析了算法在解决决策树生成问题上的复杂性与计算结果,并分别以长三角和珠三角城市群为案例分析对象,利用该模型和算法对两个城市群的重大公共安全事件应急指挥关系进行了优化设计。结果表明,通过该模型和算法设计,实现了长三角、珠三角城市群各城市应急指挥中心最小化协作量的优化目标,建立起新的应急指挥关系设计方案,从而实现各城市应急指挥中心最佳的协作关系,建立起有效的应急指挥组织体系。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the government has the important strategic China city group as the country's development, the CPC Central Committee pointed out that the "11th Five-Year" plan, to the city group as the main form of promoting urbanization construction, "12th Five-Year" plan further proposed "bureau of city development strategy two vertical and three horizontal". With the city to speed up the process, constantly the expansion of city size, population, the height of the building is intensive, once in the city group in major public safety incidents, its harm is unparalleled in any other area, due to the state and society loss and damage is immeasurable. The sustainable development of city group of major public safety incidents will be related to the whole region public safety and economic society poses a serious threat. The diffusion, evolution process involves multi subject, multi dimension, multi factors interaction, is a nonlinear complex system. Therefore, realizing reasonable allocation of the city group of emergency resources is very important, the key problem is how to optimize the design of emergency cooperation. This topic from the theory and method of case reasoning of unconventional emergencies in the National Natural Science Fund Project "for emergency decision support" (No. 91324203) "the city group, major public safety incidents emergency command and coordination as the research object, selects the emergency command structure as a breakthrough, first elaborated the city group of major public safety incidents and emergency command elements, based on the research framework of city group of major public safety incidents emergency command mode and path. Then reveals the city group of major public safety incidents three emergency command and coordination mode. Then based on cooperative network emergency command organization design of city group, city group Emergency command organization decision tree are described and analyzed, which constructs the mathematical model of the design of city emergency command organization group decision tree. Finally, respectively in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta city group as a case study, the application of the emergency command decision model and algorithm of major public safety incidents two city group emergency command relationship the optimization design, verify the effective cooperation between the city emergency command group of each node in the city. The main research contents of this thesis are: basic theory and method of cooperative in the sort of emergency command, combined with the definition of the city group of major public safety incidents and the city group of major public safety incidents emergency command concept, analysis of the composition of the city group major public safety incidents emergency command elements, and pointed out that the city group of major public safety emergency command between the various elements of the city group of heavy contact. The framework of public safety emergency command mode is analyzed, including a group of major city public safety emergency command system, city group of major public safety emergency command system, based on the analysis of the path to achieve the city group of major public safety emergency command. The definition of city group of major public safety emergency command and coordination, the characteristics and the composition the elements, on this basis, the analysis of three models of emergency command collaboration. Further pointed out that the core problem of city group of major public safety emergency command and coordination, namely the research of distributed network based collaborative emergency command. That can be through the construction of city group of major public safety incidents emergency command relationship optimization model, so as to realize the effective cooperation between the city group node city emergency command center. Based on the emergency command collaboration net design of city group, city of City emergency command group organization decision tree are described and analyzed, the definition of city emergency command group within the organization of indirect external collaboration and accused of organizing the total work load, the design is given for the city emergency command organization group decision tree and the mathematical description. To solve the city emergency command organization group decision tree using Gomory-Hu tree generation method, analysis of the proposed algorithm in solving the problem of decision tree on the complexity and calculation results, and the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta city group as a case study, the two city group of the major public safety incident emergency command is designed by the use of the model and algorithm. The results show that the model and algorithm design, implementation of the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta city group the optimization goal of city emergency command center to minimize the amount of collaboration, establish emergency command relationship design new case, In order to realize the best cooperative relationship between the emergency command center of each city and establish an effective emergency command organization system.

【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：D63
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本文编号：1483167