污染类邻避冲突事件系统动态演化与仿真研究

发布时间：2018-04-14 14:20

本文选题：污染类邻避冲突事件 + 动态演化　；参考：《中国软科学》2017年08期

【摘要】：工业化、城市化进程的加快在推动社会经济发展的同时,激化了资源与环境的深层次矛盾,在整体利益与局部利益、经济利益与环境利益等一系列矛盾交织的宏观背景下,邻避冲突已成为转型期社会的一个新风险源和城市治理热点问题。由于污染类事件呈现出的高风险、多因素、动态性等系统性特征,本文以文献分析、网络数据和调研数据为基础,提炼污染类邻避冲突事件发展影响因素,运用系统动力学方法构建SD模型并模拟事件的动态演化过程。通过对不同情景的仿真结果研究发现,民众对邻避设施的选址及社会舆论具有较强的敏感性,政府通过合理的利益补偿及加大信息公开程度能有效地控制邻避冲突程度。
[Abstract]:The acceleration of industrialization and urbanization not only promotes the social and economic development, but also intensifies the deep-seated contradiction between resources and environment. Under the background of a series of contradictions, such as overall and local interests, economic interests and environmental interests, etc.Conflict avoidance has become a new source of risk and a hot issue of urban governance in the transitional society.Because of the high risk, multi-factor and dynamic characteristics of pollution events, this paper abstracts the factors that influence the development of pollution-like conflict avoidance events based on literature analysis, network data and investigation data.The SD model is constructed by using system dynamics method and the dynamic evolution process of events is simulated.Through the simulation results of different scenarios, it is found that the public has a strong sensitivity to the location of adjacent facilities and public opinion, and the government can effectively control the degree of conflict avoidance through reasonable interest compensation and increasing the degree of information disclosure.
【作者单位】：哈尔滨工程大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71774038、7162031106) 黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目(16GLD08) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(HEUCF170911)
【分类号】：D630

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