非常规突发事件应急决策资源配置模型研究

发布时间：2018-05-28 23:35

本文选题：突发事件 + 应急决策　；参考：《大连理工大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着信息化、工业化的迅速发展,社会经济日益繁荣,而社会的飞速发展是一把双刃剑,一方面大大提高了人民的生活水平,另一方面也使我们的生活更加依赖资源,社会的各个功能系统紧密连接,呈现复杂巨系统的典型特征。这种情况下,突发事件的发生也容易对社会、生态环境和人民的生命财产安全产生更大的影响。近年来,非常规突发事件时有发生,随着社会的发展其复杂度也不断增加,各种社会治安、自然环境灾害、安全事故、卫生事件等领域的突发事件,造成的危害也日益增强,灾害数量也急剧增加、危害程度越来越严重。这些现象使如何对突发事件进行有效的应对成为社会研究的热点,其中应急决策中资源的配置活动作为突发事件应对的重要保障,也成为应急管理研究领域的核心问题之一。突发事件的资源配置是一个多资源点、多约束、多需求点、多目标、多运输工具,同时具有信息动态变化和资源共享性的复杂问题。非常规突发事件发生后,怎么利用好现有资源,作出对突发事件的最快、最好的响应,保证应急物资快速到位,对救援工作的顺利开展是有力的保障。由于突发事件应对过程中通常会出现物资稀缺、时间紧迫的情况,在这种情况下如何更好地进行应急资源的配置,也成为能否对突发事件进行有效应对的关键所在。突发事件应对中,在进行情景分析和问题识别后,最重要的就是如何高效地利用应急资源,达到抑制、减轻或消除事件影响的目的。本文在对国内外突发事件中资源配置活动研究的基础上,结合相关理论和方法,对应急资源配置活动进行分析,提出了由与应急决策资源配置决策相关的决策环境、常规决策结果、应急资源配置决策主体、资源配置方案、决策工具、活动结果共同组成的应急资源配置模型,并对各个要素进行了深入的研究。同时提炼了应急资源配置决策过程中涉及到的应急资源协同特征,并进行了深入分析。在所提模型的基础上,考虑资源配置的效用、成本和公平性,提出了应急资源配置的优化模型,给出了算法的求解步骤,为应急资源配置模型的实际运用提供了参考。本文以突发事件中应急决策资源配置活动为研究对象,分析资源配置活动的本质和特征,建立描述资源配置活动中涉及到的各个要素的一般模型,为制定规范、有效、全面的资源配置决策提供参考。并从决策方案优化的角度,提出应急资源配置的优化模型。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of information technology and industrialization, and the increasing prosperity of social economy, the rapid development of society is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it has greatly improved the living standards of the people, on the other hand, it has also made our lives more dependent on resources. Each functional system of the society is closely connected and presents the typical characteristics of the complex giant system. In this case, the occurrence of unexpected events is also easy to have a greater impact on the society, ecological environment and people's life and property safety. In recent years, unconventional emergencies have occurred from time to time. With the development of society, the complexity of these emergencies has also been increasing. The hazards caused by emergencies in the fields of social security, natural environment disasters, safety accidents, health incidents, etc., are also increasing day by day. The number of disasters has also increased sharply, and the degree of harm is becoming more and more serious. These phenomena make how to deal with emergencies effectively becomes the focus of social research. The allocation of resources in emergency decision-making as an important guarantee of emergency response has also become one of the core issues in the field of emergency management research. The resource allocation of unexpected events is a complex problem with multi-resource points, multi-constraints, multi-demand points, multi-objectives and multi-means of transportation, as well as the dynamic changes of information and the sharing of resources. How to make good use of existing resources, make the fastest and best response to emergencies, ensure that emergency materials are in place quickly, is a powerful guarantee for the smooth development of rescue work. Due to the shortage of materials and time in the process of emergency response, how to allocate emergency resources better becomes the key to deal with emergencies effectively. After scene analysis and problem identification, the most important thing in emergency response is how to use emergency resources efficiently to suppress, mitigate or eliminate the impact of the event. Based on the research of resource allocation activities in emergency events at home and abroad and combining with relevant theories and methods, this paper analyzes the emergency resource allocation activities, and puts forward a decision environment related to emergency decision resource allocation. The emergency resource allocation model is composed of conventional decision result, emergency resource allocation decision body, resource allocation scheme, decision tool and activity result. At the same time, the collaborative characteristics of emergency resources in the process of emergency resource allocation decision are refined and analyzed deeply. On the basis of the proposed model, considering the utility, cost and fairness of resource allocation, the optimization model of emergency resource allocation is proposed, and the solving steps of the algorithm are given, which provides a reference for the practical application of the emergency resource allocation model. This paper takes the emergency decision resource allocation activities as the research object, analyzes the nature and characteristics of the resource allocation activities, establishes a general model to describe the elements involved in the resource allocation activities. The comprehensive resource allocation decision provides the reference. The optimization model of emergency resource allocation is put forward from the point of view of decision-making scheme optimization.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：D63

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