突发事件应急决策协调策略研究及应用
发布时间：2018-11-02 12:42
【摘要】：突发事件已成为严重的社会问题,受到我国政府的高度重视。突发事件具有突发性、不确定性、群体扩散性和动态多阶段性等特点。突发事件应急决策相对于普通决策具有复杂性的特点,应急决策问题已经不能仅凭单个人或单个组织的知识和能力所能解决的,而是由不同领域和不同层次的专家组成决策群体来执行决策。由于决策群体的成员来自不同部门,掌握的专业知识也不同,决策时从不同的角度提出观点并选择方案,所以考虑问题更加全面。但是由于群体成员异构性、决策关系复杂性等因素,决策时不可避免的会产生冲突。如果不能有效的协调决策冲突,就会延长救援时间,影响决策效率,使突发事件损失增大。可见对突发事件应急决策协调策略的相关研究具有重要研究意义。目前,国内外对突发事件应急决策协调的研究已经取得了一定成果,这些成果主要侧重于冲突模型和一致性分析的数学方法研究,以及将组织行为学的相关研究成果应用到突发事件应急决策冲突协调中,而对于应急决策过程中所产生的群体冲突协调相关研究还不是很多。因此,本论文针对突发事件应急决策协调策略做了以下研究:论文分析突发事件应急决策问题特点和突发事件应急决策特征,并根据应急决策组织结构和应急决策过程得出应急决策是多阶段群决策过程。对群决策冲突的特征、冲突产生的原因、类型以及影响进行分析,阐明突发事件应急决策冲突协调的必要性。论文根据突发事件应急决策协调过程总结出突发事件应急决策协调原理,进而建立了突发事件应急决策协调流程和基于修正决策偏好的突发事件应急决策协调机制。首先对突发事件应急决策问题进行描述,然后构建应急决策冲突测度并提出一种改进的突发事件应急决策协调算法,最后通过算例对比验证该机制的有效性。得出该机制可降低决策的主观性和不确定性。论文在突发事件应急决策协调机制的基础上根据铁路突发事件应急决策特点,设计了铁路突发事件应急决策救援方案协调系统的总体结构及功能模块,并对该系统的功能模块进行了详细说明。最后对系统主要功能界面进行了展示。
[Abstract]:Emergency has become a serious social problem, which is attached great importance by our government. Unexpected events are characterized by sudden, uncertain, group diffusion and dynamic multi-stage. Emergency decision making has the characteristics of complexity compared with ordinary decision making. The problem of emergency decision can no longer be solved by the knowledge and ability of individual or individual organization. Instead, decision-making groups are composed of experts from different fields and different levels to execute decisions. Because the members of the decision-making group come from different departments and have different professional knowledge, they put forward their views and choose the scheme from different angles when making decisions, so the consideration of the problem is more comprehensive. However, due to the heterogeneity of group members and the complexity of decision-making relationship, conflicts will inevitably occur in decision-making. If the conflict can not be coordinated effectively, the rescue time will be prolonged, and the efficiency of decision-making will be affected, and the loss of unexpected events will be increased. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the coordination strategy of emergency decision. At present, some achievements have been made in the research of emergency decision coordination at home and abroad, which mainly focus on the research of conflict model and mathematical method of consistency analysis. And the related research results of organizational behavior are applied to the conflict coordination of emergency decision-making, but there are not many researches on the coordination of group conflict in the process of emergency decision-making. Therefore, this paper has done the following research on the emergency decision-making coordination strategy: the paper analyzes the characteristics of emergency decision-making and emergency decision-making characteristics. According to the organization structure of emergency decision and the process of emergency decision, it is concluded that emergency decision is multistage group decision making process. This paper analyzes the characteristics, causes, types and effects of conflict in group decision making, and expounds the necessity of conflict coordination in emergency decision making. According to the process of emergency decision coordination, this paper summarizes the principle of emergency decision coordination, and then establishes the emergency decision coordination process and the emergency decision coordination mechanism based on modified decision preference. Firstly, the emergency decision problem is described, then the conflict measure of emergency decision is constructed, and an improved coordination algorithm for emergency decision making is proposed. Finally, the effectiveness of the mechanism is verified by an example. It is concluded that this mechanism can reduce the subjectivity and uncertainty of decision making. On the basis of emergency decision coordination mechanism, according to the characteristics of railway emergency decision, the paper designs the overall structure and function module of railway emergency decision and rescue system. The function module of the system is explained in detail. Finally, the main function interface of the system is displayed.
【学位授予单位】：兰州交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：D63
本文编号：2306041
[Abstract]:Emergency has become a serious social problem, which is attached great importance by our government. Unexpected events are characterized by sudden, uncertain, group diffusion and dynamic multi-stage. Emergency decision making has the characteristics of complexity compared with ordinary decision making. The problem of emergency decision can no longer be solved by the knowledge and ability of individual or individual organization. Instead, decision-making groups are composed of experts from different fields and different levels to execute decisions. Because the members of the decision-making group come from different departments and have different professional knowledge, they put forward their views and choose the scheme from different angles when making decisions, so the consideration of the problem is more comprehensive. However, due to the heterogeneity of group members and the complexity of decision-making relationship, conflicts will inevitably occur in decision-making. If the conflict can not be coordinated effectively, the rescue time will be prolonged, and the efficiency of decision-making will be affected, and the loss of unexpected events will be increased. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the coordination strategy of emergency decision. At present, some achievements have been made in the research of emergency decision coordination at home and abroad, which mainly focus on the research of conflict model and mathematical method of consistency analysis. And the related research results of organizational behavior are applied to the conflict coordination of emergency decision-making, but there are not many researches on the coordination of group conflict in the process of emergency decision-making. Therefore, this paper has done the following research on the emergency decision-making coordination strategy: the paper analyzes the characteristics of emergency decision-making and emergency decision-making characteristics. According to the organization structure of emergency decision and the process of emergency decision, it is concluded that emergency decision is multistage group decision making process. This paper analyzes the characteristics, causes, types and effects of conflict in group decision making, and expounds the necessity of conflict coordination in emergency decision making. According to the process of emergency decision coordination, this paper summarizes the principle of emergency decision coordination, and then establishes the emergency decision coordination process and the emergency decision coordination mechanism based on modified decision preference. Firstly, the emergency decision problem is described, then the conflict measure of emergency decision is constructed, and an improved coordination algorithm for emergency decision making is proposed. Finally, the effectiveness of the mechanism is verified by an example. It is concluded that this mechanism can reduce the subjectivity and uncertainty of decision making. On the basis of emergency decision coordination mechanism, according to the characteristics of railway emergency decision, the paper designs the overall structure and function module of railway emergency decision and rescue system. The function module of the system is explained in detail. Finally, the main function interface of the system is displayed.
【学位授予单位】：兰州交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：D63
【共引文献】
相关硕士学位论文 前3条
1 黄智丽;基于偏好冲突的复杂大群体应急决策方法研究[D];中南大学;2012年
2 刘金鑫;重大自然灾害应急资源调配群决策支持系统研究[D];中南大学;2012年
3 万奇锋;应急决策中的复杂大群体冲突测度及冲突协调研究[D];中南大学;2012年
，本文编号：2306041
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