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官员任期、官员特征与经济增长目标制定——来自230个地级市的经验证据

发布时间:2018-11-19 14:50
【摘要】:针对中国官员考核中出现的"官出数据,数据出官"现象,本文通过搜集整理2002-2014年230个地级市政府工作报告中的经济增长目标数据,考察了官员的任期和特征对经济增长目标设定与完成情况的影响,重点关注了"官出数据"的经验证据。研究显示:(1)相对于市长,市委书记对经济增长目标制定的影响更大。市委书记的年龄越大越倾向于制定较低的经济增长目标;(2)市委书记在任期内对经济增长目标及完成情况的影响呈"倒U"型趋势;(3)中西部地区和三、四、五线城市市委书记任期的变动对经济目标的制定和完成情况的影响更强,东部地区和一、二线城市市长任期的变动对经济增长目标及完成情况的影响更明显;(4)党代会的召开和省与国家经济增长目标的制定对官员任期内经济增长目标的设定具有较强的正向影响。本研究丰富了官员"晋升锦标赛"理论的经验证据,有助于对政府经济绩效目标制定和考核进行有效的监督和管理。
[Abstract]:In view of the phenomenon of "official output data, data out of officials" appearing in the examination of Chinese officials, this paper collects and collates the economic growth target data from 230 prefectural municipal government work reports from 2002 to 2014. This paper examines the influence of the tenure and characteristics of officials on the setting and completion of economic growth goals, and focuses on the empirical evidence of "official output data". The results show that: (1) the party secretary has more influence on the economic growth target than the mayor. The older the party secretary is, the more inclined he is to set a lower economic growth target. (2) the influence of the municipal party secretary on the economic growth target and the completion of the party secretary during his term of office shows a trend of "inverted U"; (3) the changes in the tenure of municipal party secretaries in the central and western regions and in the third, fourth and fifth tier cities have a stronger impact on the formulation and completion of economic objectives, in the eastern region and in the first, The change of the term of mayor in the second tier city has more obvious influence on the economic growth target and the completion; (4) the convening of the Party Congress and the formulation of provincial and national economic growth goals have a strong positive impact on the setting of economic growth goals during the term of office of officials. This study enriches the empirical evidence of the theory of "promotion championship", and helps to supervise and manage the government's economic performance objectives.
【作者单位】: 南京财经大学产业发展研究院;
【基金】:自然科学基金青年项目“适宜性创新模式选择与全要素生产率:基于创新价值链与空间外溢视角”(71403115) 中国博士后基金特别资助项目“中国式分权、适宜性创新模式与全要素生产率提升”(2015T80176)的资助
【分类号】:D630.3;F127

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