基于BIE模型的股票投资策略研究

发布时间：2018-01-02 06:23

本文关键词：基于BIE模型的股票投资策略研究　出处：《北京邮电大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：经过二十余年的发展,中国的股票资本市场取得了伟大成就。截止2012年3月,A股账户数达到1.6亿户,总市值达到23万亿元,上市公司达到2450家。中国的股市扩容速度可谓是领先全球。然而,经过股市血雨腥风的洗礼,中国的股民却损失惨重。2011年12月13日,历史性一幕在A股市场上演,上证指数跌至2245点,也就是十年前的2001年6月14日的点位。十年一轮回,A股“奇迹般”回到起点。据新浪网2011年12月30日的调查显示,40%的股民2011年的股票投资亏损在50%以上。关于普通股民投资亏损的原因分析很多,包括资本市场的融资定位问题、股票发行制度问题、上市公司法人治理结构问题、资本市场内幕交易问题等。但是,这些问题都是有赖于特权阶层利益的博弈、体制的变革等,而这些因素是我们普通股民无法掌控的。对于我们来说,唯一要做的是提升自己认识,把握事物本质,摸清发展规律,尽量避免在将来的资本市场中再次遭受损失。基于这个目标,本人将自身的实际操作经验和国内外已经积累的经验相结合,提出基于BIE模型的股票投资策略。 BIE模型的核心思想就是遵循经济规律,抓住经济周期(Business cycle)、行业周期(Industry cycle)及上市公司生命周期(Enterprise life cycle)三者的上升阶段,顺势而为。首先,对于经济周期来说,有四个发展阶段,分别是复苏期、扩张期、滞涨期和衰退期。根据美林投资时钟理论,股票投资的最佳时期是复苏期。那么,我们就需要知道如何识别复苏期的起点和终点,需明确判断的指标及其特征；其次,对于行业生命周期来说,同样存在着创业期、成长期、成熟期和衰退期四个阶段,并且不同的行业,所处的阶段存在着差异性。而对于我们普通投资者来说,无疑创业期和成长期的行业是我们投资的首选。同样,我们需要进行成长性行业判断的指标；最后,对于企业生命周期来说(也就是我们的投资对象：上市公司),通常也划分为发展期、成长期、成熟期和衰退期。同样,我们的目标投资对象必须处在发展期或是成长期,并且将上市公司的分析角度从四个方面展开,分别是竞争地位、发展空间、盈利能力和投资收益,每个方面提炼出两个关键指标,来进行上市公司的甄别。
[Abstract]:After twenty years of development, Chinese stock capital market has made great achievements. As of March 2012, A shares account number reached 160 million, the total market value reached 23 trillion yuan, listed companies reached 2450. Chinese the stock market expansion speed is a leading global stock market. However, after a bloody baptism, Chinese investors have lost.2011 in December 13th, the historic scene in the A-share market staged A, the Shanghai index fell 2245 points, or ten years ago in June 14, 2001. A ten year cycle, A shares "miracle" back to the starting point. According to the survey of sina.com.cn in December 30, 2011, 40% of the investors in 2011 stock investment losses in more than 50%. The reason for ordinary investors investment losses analysis of many problems, including the location of financing of capital market, the stock issuance system, the corporate governance structure of listed companies, capital market insider trading The problem. However, these problems are the game depends on the privileged interests, system changes, and these factors are our ordinary investors cannot control. For us, the only thing to do is to enhance their understanding, grasp the essence of things, find out the law of development, as far as possible to avoid losses again in the future capital in the market. Based on this, I will own practical experience at home and abroad have accumulated experience combined, put forward the stock investment strategy based on the BIE model.
The core idea of BIE model is to follow the economic law, seize the economic cycle (Business cycle) (Industry cycle), the industry cycle and life cycle of listed companies (Enterprise life cycle) of the three stage, the flow.
First of all, the economic cycle, there are four stages of development, which is the recovery period, the expansion period, stagnation and decline. According to the Merrill Lynch Investment clock theory, the best period of stock investment recovery period. So, we need to know how to identify the starting point and end point of the recovery period, the index and its characteristics of clear judge;
Secondly, for the industry life cycle, there is also a start-up period, growth period, mature period and decline period of four stages, and different industries, the stage difference. But for us ordinary investors, undoubtedly starting and growth period of the industry is our investment choice. Also, we the need for the growth of the industry index judgment;
Finally, for the enterprise life cycle (i.e. our investments: listed companies), usually divided into growth period, development period, mature period and decline period. Similarly, we must target investment in the development stage or growth stage, and the analysis of listed companies from four aspects. They are competition status, development space, profitability and investment income, every aspect of the extracted two key indicators, the screening of listed companies.

【学位授予单位】：北京邮电大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.51;F224

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