创业板盈余质量与股票收益的相关性分析

发布时间：2018-01-03 17:17

本文关键词：创业板盈余质量与股票收益的相关性分析　出处：《西安科技大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：盈余是企业经营成果的反应，是证券监管部门管理上市公司和投资者做出决策时的重要参考指标，近几年证券市场上出现的一些造假行为使人们普遍开始关注盈余的质量问题，创业板市场运行已有将近三年的时间，经历了股价的大起大落，其盈余质量和股票收益的关系如何呢？本文首先从决策有用观的角度研究了盈余质量的涵义、特征、影响因素和评价方法，从盈余质量的特征出发设计出了八个财务指标，并用变异系数综合评价法综合评价企业盈余质量。接着论述了股票收益的涵义和表示方法，并从理论上论述了盈余质量和股票收益的关系。本文实证部分选取了在创业板上市的150家企业为样本，用“盈余-收益”模型分析了创业板企业盈余质量与股票收益的相关性，显示出创业板上市公司盈余质量与股票收益正相关，但盈余质量对股票收益的解释力度不大，盈余质量的真实性与股票收益率不相关，，现金保障性与股票收益率不显著正相关，持续性与股票收益率负相关，盈利性和成长性与股票收益率显著正相关，安全性与股票收益率显著负相关。显示出创业板的投资者仅仅重视企业的盈利性和成长性水平，不关注主营业务带来的利润和销售收入带来的利润，不关注现金流量对利润的保障性和企业的风险水平，表明投资者不能有效区分盈余质量和盈余数量，从而不能识别企业的盈余操纵行为，投资存在盲目性。文章最后根据研究结果和创业板市场的现状提出了一些对策和建议，包括完善创业板新股发行制度和信息披露制度，培育专业的投资咨询机构和证券分析师等。
[Abstract]:The surplus is the reaction of the operation results of the enterprise , it is the important reference index of the securities regulatory department to manage the listed companies and investors to make decisions . In recent years , some of the fake behavior in the security market has caused people to pay close attention to the quality problem of the surplus , and the market of the GEM has been running for nearly three years . How about the relationship between the surplus quality and the stock return ? In this paper , the connotation , characteristics , influencing factors and evaluation methods of surplus quality are studied from the perspective of decision - making useful view . Eight financial indexes are designed from the characteristics of surplus quality , and the surplus quality of the enterprise is comprehensively evaluated by the comprehensive evaluation method of coefficient of variation . Then the meaning and representation method of stock return are discussed , and the relationship between surplus quality and stock return is discussed theoretically . The empirical part of this paper selects 150 enterprises listed in the GEM as samples , and analyzes the correlation between earnings quality and stock return of the stock market by using the " surplus - income " model , shows that the earnings quality of the listed company is not related to the stock return , and the earnings quality is negatively correlated with the stock yield .

【学位授予单位】：西安科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.51;F275;F224

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