EVA对我国主板市场公司股价影响的研究

发布时间：2018-01-05 20:10

本文关键词：EVA对我国主板市场公司股价影响的研究　出处：《哈尔滨工程大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2010年年初，国资委新修订的《中央企业负责人经营业绩考核办法》决定从中央企业负责人的第三任期开始，全面推行经济增加值考核指标，且经济增加值在整个考核中的所占权重为40％，超过占比30％的会计利润指标。这标志着我国二十多万亿资产规模、年收入近十七万亿的中央企业正式纳入经济增加值指标管理体系。EVA与传统业绩指标最大的不同是其考虑了股权资本在内的企业全部资本，体现了经济利润的概念。同时EVA对财务报表中相应科目做出了调整，克服了传统财务指标对企业业绩造成的扭曲，真实的反映了企业的内在价值，有效度量了股东的财富变化。经营业绩与价值创造能力是上市公司股价最重要的决定因素，EVA是业绩评价的优良指标，本研究试图验证EVA在我国资本市场的有效性，找到EVA与上市公司股价间的关系。本文首先从剖析影响股价的因素入手，从理论上明确导致股价波动的主要因素;然后阐述EVA的内涵与计算方法，剖析EVA的经济含义;在理论研究方面，比较EVA指标与传统业绩指标衡量公司价值与影响股价的有效性，归纳EVA指标较传统会计指标的优越性，讨论EVA估值模型相对于经典的现金流折现模型的优点；其次在实证研究方面，以我国沪深主板市场上市公司2008年至2010年的相关经济数据为研究依据，，研究时为了尽量缩小公司规模造成的盈利能力差异影响，以上市公司资产值为控制变量对比分析EVA体系指标和传统财务指标与以MVA值衡量的上市公司股价和价值及股价变动率的相关性，并进行分析。并以上市公司MVA为被解析变量，以EVA体系指标和传统会计指标为解析变量，进行多远回归分析，并作出相应检验。另外在实证部分中，依托上述研究结果，分析了EVA对不同的行业上市公司股价的解析能力，随后对实证分析的结果做出总结，分析得到这个实证结果可能的原因；最后分析了EVA指标在应用中的不足，并对其在我国的应用提出相应的建议。
[Abstract]:At the beginning of 2010, the SASAC's newly revised "measures for assessing the Business performance of the responsible Persons of Central Enterprises" decided to comprehensively implement the assessment index of economic added value starting from the third term of the responsible persons of the central enterprises. And the weight of economic added value in the whole examination is 40%, which exceeds the accounting profit index of 30%, which marks the scale of more than 20 trillion assets in our country. The biggest difference between central enterprises with annual income of nearly 17 tillion years and traditional performance indicators is that they consider the total capital of enterprises including equity capital. At the same time, EVA adjusts the corresponding subjects in the financial statements, overcomes the distortion of the traditional financial indicators to the enterprise performance, and reflects the intrinsic value of the enterprise. Effective measurement of shareholder wealth changes. EVA is the most important determinant of the stock price of listed companies. It is an excellent indicator of performance evaluation. This study attempts to verify the effectiveness of EVA in China's capital market. To find out the relationship between EVA and the stock price of listed companies. Firstly, this paper begins with the analysis of the factors that affect the stock price, and theoretically clarifies the main factors that lead to the fluctuation of the stock price. Then the connotation and calculation method of EVA are expounded, and the economic meaning of EVA is analyzed. In the theoretical research, compare the effectiveness of EVA index and traditional performance index to measure the company value and influence the stock price, sum up the superiority of EVA index compared with the traditional accounting index. The advantages of EVA valuation model over classical cash flow discount model are discussed. Secondly, in the empirical research, based on the Shanghai and Shenzhen main Board listed companies from 2008 to 2010 related economic data as the research basis. In order to minimize the impact of profitability differences caused by the size of the company. Taking the asset value of listed company as the control variable, this paper analyzes the correlation between the EVA system index and the traditional financial index and the stock price and value and the change rate of the listed company based on the MVA value. And take listed company MVA as the analytic variable, take the EVA system index and the traditional accounting index as the analytic variable, carry on the multi-distance regression analysis, and make the corresponding test. In addition, in the empirical part. Based on the above research results, this paper analyzes the analytical ability of EVA to the stock price of listed companies in different industries, and then summarizes the results of empirical analysis, and analyzes the possible reasons for this empirical result. Finally, the deficiency of EVA index in application is analyzed, and the corresponding suggestions for its application in our country are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F275;F832.51

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