基于财务风险预警模型的上市公司退市制度探讨

发布时间：2018-01-05 21:29

本文关键词：基于财务风险预警模型的上市公司退市制度探讨　出处：《河北大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国证券市场的快速发展，证券法逐步确立，与此同时关于股票暂停上市的相关制度条例也在不断的完善，但在实际操作过程中并没有太多存在上市风险的公司被强制退市，而是很多情况下，通过一段时间企业内部的“积极经营”又重新回到了正常状态股票的行列，最终导致真正被实施退市的公司很少。上市公司退市制度在近些年来一直倍受关注，如何建立定性和定量的财务风险评价体系是很多学者一直在研究的问题。本文主要通过上市公司的财务指标数据，运用多元统计学中的Logistic回归方法对ST股票以及配对的非ST股票进行建模，先确定哪些因素对于评价上市公司的财务风险有较明显的影响，再把研究样本连续五年的季度财务数据进行计算得到风险P值的时间序列，，最后基于P值的时间序列进行对比研究。最后发现，大部上市公司被警示的滞后时间是不一样的，而且资产规模较大的公司被实施ST的滞后时间相对较长，规模较小的公司相对较短，另外，不同资产规模的上市公司具有不同的风险承受能力。根据以上得出的结论，本文为我国上市公司退市制度考核方法的进一步完善提供了有价值的参考。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's securities market, securities law gradually established at the same time, relevant regulations on the suspension of listed stocks are constantly improving, but not too many listed companies were forced to withdraw from the market risk in the actual operation process, but in many cases, through a period of time within the enterprise "active management" returned to normal stock ranks, eventually leading to real delisting companies rarely. The delisting system of listed companies has attracted much attention in recent years, how to establish the qualitative and quantitative financial risk evaluation system is a lot of scholars have been studying the problem. This paper mainly through the financial data of listed companies, using Logistic regression method multivariate statistics in non ST stock of ST stock and matching model, to determine which factors for financial evaluation of listed companies There is obvious influence risk, then quarter sample of five consecutive years of financial data to calculate the risk value of P time series, the last time series based on the P value were compared. Finally found that most listed companies are warning the lag time is not the same, and the assets of the larger company is the implementation of ST lag time is relatively long, smaller companies is relatively short, in addition, the different asset size of listed companies with different risk tolerance. According to the above conclusions, this paper provides a valuable reference for the further improvement of the examination method of delisting system of Listed Companies in China.

【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F275;F832.51

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