公平信息披露与分析师盈利预测精度和分歧度

发布时间：2018-01-09 02:20

本文关键词：公平信息披露与分析师盈利预测精度和分歧度　出处：《暨南大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文以2003年至2009年国泰安数据库（CSMAR）中分析师对深圳主板A股上市公司的年度盈利预测数据为样本，研究了公平信息披露对分析师盈利预测精度和分歧度的影响。实证检验发现：（1）分析师预测精度在规则实施后显著下降，其原因是公平信息披露规则有效地限制了上市公司选择性信息披露行为，分析师私人信息减少了，并且由于中国信息披露水平尚处于较低层次，，分析师缺乏动力通过其他渠道弥补该信息缺口。同时随着规则实施时间的推移，分析师预测精度在规则实施后期比初期有更显著的下降；与信息披露质量及时准确的上市公司相比，对信息披露水平较差的公司，分析师盈利预测精度下降幅度更大。（2）对于分析师盈利预测分歧度的变化，本文实证研究发现公平披露规则实施后，分析师看法分歧程度显著增加了，原因在于公平披露规则导致分析师私人信息减少，不同私人信息的获得渠道使得分析师拥有的信息差异程度增加了。本文的实证研究表明，公平信息披露规则实施后，上市公司选择性信息披露数量减少了，分析师盈利预测质量下降，分析师私人信息数量减少而信息环境的不确定性增加。
[Abstract]:In this paper, from 2003 to 2009 in Tai'an database (CSMAR) data in analyst on the main board of the Shenzhen A shares of listed companies annual earnings forecasts of fair disclosure impact prediction accuracy and divergence of analysts' earnings. Empirical test shows that: (1) analyst forecast accuracy declined significantly in the implementation of rules, the reason is the fair information disclosure rules to effectively restrict the behavior of selective information disclosure of listed companies, analysts and private information is reduced, because the level China information disclosure is still at a relatively low level, analysts lack power through other channels to make the information gap. At the same time as the rules implementation time, analysts forecast precision in implementation of rules later decreased more significantly than the initial; compared with the quality of information disclosure of listed companies to timely and accurately, the information disclosure level of the company, analysts Ying The prediction accuracy decreased much more. (2) the change of analysts' earnings forecast divergence, the empirical study found that after the implementation of fair disclosure rules, analysts are split on increased significantly, because the fair disclosure of private information to reduce the degree of information analyst, different private information access channels makes analysts have increased. The empirical research shows that the fair information disclosure rules, information disclosure of listed companies selectively reduced the number of analysts' earnings forecasts, the decline in the quality of the number of analysts, private information and information to reduce the uncertainty of environment increases.

【学位授予单位】：暨南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.51;F233;F224

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