城投债信用风险影响因素及控制研究

发布时间：2018-01-12 02:17

本文关键词：城投债信用风险影响因素及控制研究　出处：《南京财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：08年金融危机爆发以后，中央政府提出了4万亿经济投资拉动计划，随后地方政府纷纷成立政府融资平台并通过发行城投债为项目融资。由于城投债发行主体为地方融资平台公司，一方面作为市场独立主体参与市场活动，另一方面要服务于地方城市建设，城投债兼具了企业债与市政债券的双重性质，其债券信用风险来源也较为复杂。城投债与金融行业、房地产行业关联较为密切，如果城投债发生大规模信用风险，会对经济发展产生较大的影响。因而对其信用风险的来源、影响因素进行研究并探寻有效的风险控制方法十分重要。本文以“起源—现状—影响因素—控制方法—政策建议”为线索对城投债信用风险进行研究。第一章为绪论部分，主要介绍了文章选题的背景、意义和国内外研究现状和国外发行经验，随后介绍了文中的研究方法。第二章为我国目前城投债发行现状，对所掌握的城投债样本进行描述性统计分析，深入研究了城投债在发行现状和市场表现，更精准的从量的角度反映了城投债发债主体的经营状况，较为全面揭示了城投债的特点以及其双重属性。第三章研究城投债信用风险的影响因素，首先从理论上，以城投债的双重属性为切入点分析其风险来源，随后利用全局主成分分析法和多元回归法对2011年所发行的城投债为样本进行实证研究。最后得出对城投债信用风险影响显著的三个因子，，分别为发行主体所在地地方财政实力、发行主体资产负债情况以及资产规模，从而有助于投资者正确把握城投债风险，同时有助于城投债的健康发展。第四章研究城投债风险防范的方法，本文认为，城投债的主要还款来源还是地方政府的财政收入，因而根据地方政府财政收入能力合理规划地方城投债的规模是短期内控制城投债风险的最佳方法。在前人研究的基础上，以江苏省为例，采用了KMV信用风险度量模型进行实证研究，计算算出未来几年内江苏省内城投债发行的适度规模，从而为未来地方城投债的发行审核提供了一定的参考。第五章在前文的研究基础上从债券市场、地方政府、发行主体等方面提出了防范信用风险的政策建议，希望能够对城投债以及未来市政债券的健康发展有所裨益。本文的不足之处有，受城投债信息披露以及市场交易非连续的限制，未能引入宏观经济周期因素来分析城投债信用风险的影响因素。另外目前地方政府信息披露不完全，本文未能结合地方政府实际拥有的土地资源存量以及城投债担保资产进行分析，可能会对分析结果有一定的影响。如果能够进一步获得更详尽的资料，如果能克服数据上的不足，我们的研究会更加全面精确。
[Abstract]:08 years after the outbreak of the financial crisis, the central government put forward 4 trillion economic investment plan, then local governments have set up the financing platform of the government and the city voted bonds issued to finance a project. Because the city voted debt issuers to local financing platform for the company, on the one hand, as an independent subject of the market to participate in market activities, on the other hand to serve the local city construction, the city voted bonds with the dual nature of corporate bonds and municipal bonds, the bond credit risk sources are also complicated. The city voted bonds and the financial industry, the real estate industry is closely related, if the city voted debt massive credit risk, will have a greater impact on the economic development. So the source of credit risk the influence factors of research and explore the effective risk control method is very important.
In this paper, the origin of status - the impact factor - control method - policy suggestion "for clues to the credit risk of the city investment bond research. The first chapter is the introduction part, mainly introduces the background, significance and status of foreign and domestic and foreign research issue experience, then introduces the research methods in this paper.
The second chapter is the present situation of the city to vote bonds issued, the city voted bonds sample descriptive statistical analysis, in-depth study of the city voted debt in the issue of the status quo and market performance, more accurate from the perspective of quantity reflects the city voted debt issuers operating conditions, comprehensively reveals the characteristics of city investment the debt and its dual attributes.
The third chapter studies the factors affecting the credit risk of the city investment bond, firstly, with the dual attributes of the city voted debt as the starting point of the analysis of the risk sources, then using global principal component analysis and multiple regression method issued in 2011 the city voted debt for empirical research. The most of the City voted bonds the credit risk influence three factors significantly, respectively, the main issue of the local financial strength, the main issue of assets and liabilities and assets, which helps investors to make the right investment and debt risk, and contribute to the healthy development of the city to vote bonds.
The fourth chapter studies the city voted debt risk prevention method, this paper believes that the main source of repayment of the city voted bonds or local government revenue, and according to the local city voted debt scale rational planning of local government fiscal revenue ability is the best method for short-term control of the city voted debt risk. On the basis of previous studies, in Jiangsu for example, the KMV credit risk measurement model for empirical research, calculations of the next few years in Jiangsu Province, the city voted in moderate scale debt issuance, so as to provide some reference for the future where the city voted debt issuance.
In the fifth chapter, on the basis of previous studies, we put forward policy recommendations to prevent credit risks from the aspects of bond market, local government and issuers, hoping to benefit the healthy development of urban debt and future municipal bonds.
The inadequacies of this article, the city voted debt information disclosure and market transactions, non continuous limit, influence factors to analyze the credit risk of the city investment bond macroeconomic cycle factors failed to introduce. In addition, the current local government information disclosure is not complete, the local government has failed to combine the actual land resources and the city voted debt secured assets analysis may have a certain impact on the analysis results. If we can get more detailed information, if can overcome the lack of data, our study will be more comprehensive and accurate.

【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.51

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